Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 23 April 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau (Valledupar)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)


	Alianza Valledupar		Universidad Católica

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.2	2.3	Watch
	3.2	3.1	2.25
	3.1	3.2	2.3	Watch
	3.3	3.24	2.29
	3.27	3.24	2.29
	3.1	3.2	2.15
	3.24	3.3	2.21	Watch
	3.2	3.1	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (2.72)	3.2 ↑ (3.19)	2.25 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Valledupar
29.1%

Draw
29.3%

Universidad Católica
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

28.8%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

28.3%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Universidad Católica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Alianza Valledupar - Universidad Católica Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Alianza will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Uni Católica will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uni Católica: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Graziani P. (G) 2. Navarro E. 3. Figueroa J. 5. Franco P. 16. Saldana L. 7. Castillo J. 23. Meza Mercado E. W. 21. Manjarres R. 27. Batalla E. 9. Rangel M. 26. Gil M.	22. Romo R. (G) 29. Anangono G. 15. Vallecilla G. 37. Grillo F. 18. Loor L. 21. Nieto L. 4. Minda K. 10. Martinez F. 7. Rodriguez A. 9. Fajardo J. 30. Diaz I.
Substitutes
31. Acosta S. 15. Blanco Betancur C. 19. Blanco R. 25. Colpa Bolano R. R. 29. Contreras J. 8. Florez Carrillo F. A. 12. Mora J. (G) 1. Mosquera C. (G) 24. Munoz J. 6. Orozco S. 22. Ospina Londono L. A. 4. Simarra A.	16. Cifuentes J. 8. Clavijo E. 28. Diaz M. 12. Lara J. (G) 52. Moreno J. 25. Mosquera I. 27. Quevedo K. 3. Quinonez J. 11. Vivar J.
Coaches
Bodhert H.	Celico J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Batalla E. ⚽, Castillo J. (A),
22', Meza Mercado E. W. 🟨,
29', Franco P. 🟨,
38', Vallecilla G. 🟨,
45+2', Loor L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Loor L. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
50', Grillo F. 🟨,
56', 1 - 1, Franco P. (Own goal),
57', Meza Mercado E. W. ↓, Florez Carrillo F. A. ↑,
57', Gil M. ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
64', Nieto L. ↓, Cifuentes J. ↑,
67', Castillo J. ↓, Orozco S. ↑,
67', Rangel M. ↓, Blanco R. ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Cifuentes J. ⚽, Fajardo J. (A),
76', Rodriguez A. ↓, Clavijo E. ↑,
78', 1 - 3, Diaz I. ⚽, Cifuentes J. (A),
85', Manjarres R. ↓, Colpa Bolano R. R. ↑,
88', Fajardo J. ↓, Quevedo K. ↑,
88', Martinez F. ↓, Vivar J. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Alianza is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Universidad Católica is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Universidad Católica could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Universidad Católica will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Valledupar
Colombian Primera A
20.04.24	Alianza Valledupar - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
17.04.24	Rionegro Águilas - Alianza Valledupar	4:0 ✺
14.04.24	Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo La Equidad	0:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
11.04.24	Cruzeiro - Alianza Valledupar	3:3 ✺
Colombian Primera A
07.04.24	Patriotas - Alianza Valledupar	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WLLTT
- Universidad Católica
Chilean Primera Division
20.04.24	Universidad Católica - Colo-Colo	0:1 ✺
13.04.24	Deportes Iquique - Universidad Católica	2:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.24	Unión La Calera - Universidad Católica	0:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
06.04.24	Universidad Católica - Cobresal	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.04.24	Universidad Católica - Cruzeiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWWWT

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