Match Info

COLOMBIA: Primera A - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 7 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio La Independencia (Tunja)

Referee: Ruiz D. (Col)


	Patriotas		Alianza Valledupar

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.4	5.75	Watch
	1.68	3.3	5
	1.75	3.3	5.5	Watch
	1.72	3.41	6.08
	1.71	3.41	6.08
	1.65	3.3	5.5
	1.73	3.34	5.33	Watch
	1.65	3.35	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (2.16)	3.35 ↑ (3.05)	5.56 ↑ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Patriotas
55.2%

Draw
28%

Alianza Valledupar
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

31%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

28.7%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Patriotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Patriotas's performance.

Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alianza Valledupar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patriotas than the current prediction. (-14.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Patriotas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alianza Valledupar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	10.5%	5.3%

Patriotas - Alianza Valledupar Predictions

Users Predictions: Patriotas will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Valencia J. (G) 15. Roa S. 6. Diaz J. 2. Pezzi A. 25. De Las Salas C. 17. Charris C. 5. Rodas M. 4. Alarcon A. (C) 10. Parra Atehortua K. 19. Martinez C. 28. Mosquera C.	1. Mosquera C. (G) 32. Hurtado C. 22. Ospina Londono L. A. (C) 4. Simarra A. 28. Blanco Betancur C. 8. Florez Carrillo F. A. 6. Orozco S. 31. Acosta S. 14. Parra J. 10. Cardenas S. 19. Blanco R.
Substitutes
11. Pena G. 35. Quinonez D. 30. Rivas I. 1. Roman S. (G) 20. Ruiz D. 37. Torres F. 3. Valencia Asprilla S. A.	25. Colpa Bolano R. R. 24. Espana Gallo J. C. 12. Mora J. (G) 17. Morales A. 18. Reyes N. 34. Torres K. 33. Torres M.
Coaches
Rivera H.	Bodhert H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Martinez C. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mosquera C. ↓, Ruiz D. ↑,
46', Martinez C. ↓, Pena G. ↑,
46', Parra J. ↓, Torres M. ↑,
46', Cardenas S. ↓, Colpa Bolano R. R. ↑,
72', Charris C. ↓, Rivas I. ↑,
80', Ospina Londono L. A. 🟨,
83', Blanco R. ↓, Reyes N. ↑,
83', Acosta S. ↓, Morales A. ↑,
84', Roa S. 🟨,
89', Pena G. ↓, Quinonez D. ↑,
90+1', Parra Atehortua K. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
90+4', Blanco Betancur C. ↓, Torres K. ↑,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 20 and 19).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Patriotas won 1.

Recent matches Patriotas is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Alianza has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Patriotas could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Patriotas is a favorite.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Patriotas won 5 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 19-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Patriotas won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Patriotas FC
Colombian Primera A
31.03.24	Independiente Santa Fe - Patriotas	3:0 ✺
22.03.24	Patriotas - Junior Barranquilla	1:0 ✺
17.03.24	Deportivo Cali - Patriotas	0:1 ✺
10.03.24	Patriotas - Deportivo Pereira	0:2 ✺
03.03.24	Atlético Bucaramanga - Patriotas	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LWWLL
- Alianza Valledupar
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.24	Alianza Valledupar - Unión La Calera	0:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
29.03.24	Alianza Valledupar - Deportes Tolima	0:2 ✺
25.03.24	Once Caldas - Alianza Valledupar	1:0 ✺
15.03.24	Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo Pasto	1:1 ✺
09.03.24	América de Cali - Alianza Valledupar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
22.09.22	Patriotas - Alianza Valledupar	0:0
27.03.22	Alianza Valledupar - Patriotas	2:1
20.09.21	Alianza Valledupar - Patriotas	3:0
16.02.21	Patriotas - Alianza Valledupar	3:1
03.11.20	Alianza Valledupar - Patriotas	0:0
29.10.19	Patriotas - Alianza Valledupar	1:1
05.05.19	Alianza Valledupar - Patriotas	3:0

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