Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau (Valledupar)

Referee: Villa Zapata J. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Alianza Valledupar		Jaguares de Córdoba

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.7	4.33	Watch
	1.8	3.25	4.33
	1.82	3.35	4.45	Watch
	1.83	3.44	4.88
	1.81	3.32	4.73	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.4
	1.78	3.65	4.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.68)	3.4 ↓ (3.7)	4.49 ↓ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Valledupar
51.6%

Draw
27.5%

Jaguares de Córdoba
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

25.3%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

20.2%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Jaguares de Córdoba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza Valledupar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaguares de Córdoba than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	0%	22.2%

Alianza Valledupar - Jaguares de Córdoba Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Alianza will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Jaguares de Córdoba will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alianza: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wallens J. (G) 16. Rosales Y. 22. Figueroa J. 5. Franco P. (C) 23. Viveros J. 33. Lasso J. 21. Cantillo F. 7. Castillo J. 17. Pardo F. 27. Londono Y. 29. Lucumi C.	12. Mosquera F. (G) 22. Ordonez C. 4. Mosquera Y. 29. Henao C. 19. Moreno Y. (C) 13. Hinestroza J. 23. Mosquera F. 8. Rodriguez Urango D. 10. Jopito 26. Lopez D. 16. Mejia J.
Substitutes
24. Banguero E. 15. Esparragoza C. 10. Fernandez W. 3. Moreno K. 26. Mosquera J. 28. Osorio J. 25. Perez Balcazar J. E. 13. Simancas A. (G) 20. Valencia L.	5. Colpa Bolano R. R. 24. Cubides S. 27. Gracia F. 25. Jimenez L. 6. Lovera J. 1. Martinez D. (G) 17. Viveros J.
Coaches
Ayala C.	Florentin G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Rosales Y. ⚽, Lasso J. (A),
19', Ordonez C. 🟨,
21', Hinestroza J. 🟨,
29', Cantillo F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cantillo F. ↓, Esparragoza C. ↑,
55', Rodriguez Urango D. ↓, Viveros J. ↑,
58', Esparragoza C. 🟨,
61', Lopez D. ↓, Jimenez L. ↑,
62', Figueroa J. ↓, Fernandez W. ↑,
62', Londono Y. ↓, Moreno K. ↑,
78', Hinestroza J. ↓, Colpa Bolano R. R. ↑,
78', Jopito ↓, Cubides S. ↑,
78', Pardo F. ↓, Perez Balcazar J. E. ↑,
78', Castillo J. ↓, Osorio J. ↑,
90+2', Lasso J. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 20 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 2.

Recent form of Alianza has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Jaguares de Córdoba is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Alianza is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 7 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:15. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Alianza won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:7. (average 1.8:0.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Alianza	13	3	3	7	14:26	-12	12
20	Jaguares de Cordoba	11	1	4	6	11:20	-9	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Valledupar
Colombian Primera A
14.03.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Alianza Valledupar	1:1 ✺
05.03.26	Junior Barranquilla - Alianza Valledupar	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Alianza Valledupar - América de Cali	0:3 ✺
21.02.26	Atlético Nacional - Alianza Valledupar	3:0 ✺
17.02.26	Alianza Valledupar - Cúcuta Deportivo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TTLLT
- Jaguares de Córdoba
Colombian Primera A
15.03.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Independiente Medellín	1:2 ✺
09.03.26	Llaneros SA - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Junior Barranquilla	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	América de Cali - Jaguares de Córdoba	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
10.11.24	Jaguares de Córdoba - Alianza Valledupar	0:0
20.04.24	Alianza Valledupar - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:1
22.09.23	Jaguares de Córdoba - Alianza Valledupar	0:0
14.04.23	Alianza Valledupar - Jaguares de Córdoba	3:0
30.07.22	Jaguares de Córdoba - Alianza Valledupar	2:1
Colombian Copa
06.04.22	Jaguares de Córdoba - Alianza Valledupar	2:1
30.03.22	Alianza Valledupar - Jaguares de Córdoba	1:1

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