Match Info

League One - Round 33

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Recreation Park (Alloa)


	Alloa Athletic		Annan Athletic

	1	X	2
	2	3.5	3.2
	1.98	3.4	3
	2.05	3.6	3.15
	2.09	3.72	3.14	Watch
	2.15	3.5	3.2
	2.07	3.6	3.11	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.93)	3.56 ↑ (3.53)	3.14 ↓ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alloa Athletic
44.8%

Draw
25.9%

Annan Athletic
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

26.1%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

25.5%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alloa Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Annan Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alloa Athletic than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Annan Athletic than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Alloa Athletic - Annan Athletic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Morrison P. (G) 19. Buchanan S. 2. Taggart S. 16. Dewar C. 6. Neill M. 27. MacKenzie M. 20. O'Donnell C. 12. Scougall S. 8. Roberts K. 25. Gentles J. 9. Donnelly L.	1. Smith J. (G) 22. Bisland L. 33. Gibson W. 2. Hooper S. 15. Kilsby M. 19. Maxwell C. 8. Todd J. 7. McGowan P. 16. Smith P. 5. Muir T. 23. Ross L.
Substitutes
7. Cawley K. 5. Graham A. 10. Honeyman S. 15. McKay D. 22. Mullen R. 1. Ogayi T. (G) 24. Rankin L. 18. Sammon C. 17. Thomson K.	17. Brown A. 11. Carmichael D. 4. Dixon J. 12. Fleming G. (G) 14. Muir R. 20. Strachan M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Gibson W. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 1 - 0, MacKenzie M. ⚽, Buchanan S. (A),
59', Bisland L. ↓, Brown A. ↑,
71', Smith P. ↓, Dixon J. ↑,
72', Maxwell C. ↓, Carmichael D. ↑,
72', O'Donnell C. ↓, Rankin L. ↑,
89', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alloa won 4.

Alloa is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Annan is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Alloa will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Alloa won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 17:8 (average 2.4:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Alloa won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:2 (average 2.7:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Annan Athletic - the odds 3.52 are the expected chance of winning is 26.2%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alloa Athletic
Scottish League One
05.04.25	Stenhousemuir - Alloa Athletic	1:4 ✺
29.03.25	Alloa Athletic - Dumbarton	2:3 ✺
22.03.25	Inverness - Alloa Athletic	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Queen of the South - Alloa Athletic	3:2 ✺
08.03.25	Alloa Athletic - Arbroath	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLTLL
- Annan Athletic
Scottish League One
05.04.25	Annan Athletic - Queen of the South	0:2 ✺
29.03.25	Annan Athletic - Kelty Hearts	2:1 ✺
22.03.25	Montrose - Annan Athletic	3:1 ✺
15.03.25	Inverness - Annan Athletic	0:1 ✺
08.03.25	Annan Athletic - Stenhousemuir	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
22.02.25	Annan Athletic - Alloa Athletic	3:4
02.11.24	Alloa Athletic - Annan Athletic	5:0
24.08.24	Annan Athletic - Alloa Athletic	0:1
30.03.24	Alloa Athletic - Annan Athletic	1:1
13.02.24	Alloa Athletic - Annan Athletic	2:1
03.02.24	Annan Athletic - Alloa Athletic	2:3
23.09.23	Annan Athletic - Alloa Athletic	1:1

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