Match Info

SCOTLAND: League One - Round 28

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Recreation Park (Alloa)


	Alloa Athletic		Arbroath

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.5	2
	3.2	3.3	1.95
	3.5	3.45	1.98
	3.73	3.4	1.99
	3.62	3.43	2.01	Watch
	3.6	3.4	2
	3.55	3.54	1.93	Watch
	3.5	3.45	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↑ (2.72)	3.43 ↑ (3.22)	1.98 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alloa Athletic
26.2%

Draw
27%

Arbroath
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

28.4%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

28.5%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alloa Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alloa Athletic's form might have worsened.

Arbroath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arbroath's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alloa Athletic than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alloa Athletic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arbroath, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Alloa Athletic - Arbroath Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Alloa will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Arbroath will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Morrison P. (G) 15. McKay D. 2. Taggart S. 6. Neill M. 19. Buchanan S. 20. O'Donnell C. 12. Scougall S. 8. Roberts K. 27. MacKenzie M. 25. Gentles J. 9. Donnelly L.	21. McAdams A. (G) 19. Penman C. 27. Muirhead A. 15. Watson K. 4. Wilkie J. 32. Spalding A. 6. Stanton S. 12. Stewart S. 14. Taylor F. 11. Dow R. 25. Winter A.
Substitutes
7. Cawley K. 23. Devine D. 16. Dewar C. 10. Honeyman S. 22. Mullen R. 1. Ogayi T. (G) 24. Rankin L. 18. Sammon C. 17. Thomson K.	20. Flynn R. 9. Gallagher C. 17. King B. 31. Mcconnell J. (G) 22. Murray I. 2. Steele A. 26. Thomson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Dow R. ⚽, Taylor F. (A),
31', Muirhead A. 🟨,
40', Stanton S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
47', 0 - 2, Muirhead A. ⚽,
56', Spalding A. ↓, Flynn R. ↑,
56', Penman C. ↓, Steele A. ↑,
61', Dow R. 🟨,
65', Buchanan S. ↓, Rankin L. ↑,
73', 1 - 2, Rankin L. ⚽, McKay D. (A),
76', 2 - 2, Scougall S. ⚽, McKay D. (A),
88', 2 - 3, Gallagher C. ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alloa won 2.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

Alloa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Arbroath will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Alloa won 8 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 27:20 (average 1.6:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Alloa won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 17:12 (average 1.9:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alloa Athletic
Scottish League One
01.03.25	Alloa Athletic - Cove Rangers	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Annan Athletic - Alloa Athletic	3:4 ✺
15.02.25	Alloa Athletic - Kelty Hearts	2:0 ✺
08.02.25	Montrose - Alloa Athletic	2:2 ✺
01.02.25	Dumbarton - Alloa Athletic	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWWTT
- Arbroath
Scottish League One
04.03.25	Dumbarton - Arbroath	1:2 ✺
01.03.25	Arbroath - Annan Athletic	3:0 ✺
25.02.25	Arbroath - Kelty Hearts	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Stenhousemuir - Arbroath	2:0 ✺
15.02.25	Queen of the South - Arbroath	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
04.01.25	Arbroath - Alloa Athletic	1:3
26.10.24	Alloa Athletic - Arbroath	0:1
Scottish Challenge Cup
11.10.24	Alloa Athletic - Arbroath	1:0
Scottish League One
31.08.24	Arbroath - Alloa Athletic	0:0
Scottish Football Championship
03.04.21	Arbroath - Alloa Athletic	2:1
13.02.21	Alloa Athletic - Arbroath	1:1
12.12.20	Arbroath - Alloa Athletic	0:1

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