Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: UD Almería Stadium (Almería)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Izzi TV
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Almería		Burgos

	1	X	2
	1.49	4.33	5.25	Watch
	1.55	3.80	5.25
	1.5	4.05	5.7	Watch
	1.53	4.31	6.72
	1.53	4.19	6.2	Watch
	1.51	4.15	6.65
	1.59	4.42	5.1	Watch
	1.53	4.2	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.77)	4.18 ↑ (3.52)	5.83 ↑ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
61.4%

Draw
22.5%

Burgos
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

26.4%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

26%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Almería's performance.

Burgos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almería than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Almería that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	14.3%	21.4%

Almería - Burgos Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Almería will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Burgos will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Almería: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Burgos (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Almería (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 4.5 - over (5.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (4.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 1 - 50%). Burgos (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 2. Luna M. 21. Chumi (C) 18. Bonini F. 15. Lelo L. 6. Vesga M. 14. Javier Munoz 12. Leo Baptistao 11. Arribas S. 17. Cipenga B. 9. Thalys	13. Cantero A. (G) 23. Dadie Izagirre A. 15. Luengo O. 18. del Cerro S. 22. Martinez B. 14. Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 20. Gragera J. 12. Vencedor U. 19. Llabres J. 7. Karrikaburu J. 16. Sanchez C. (C)
Substitutes
22. Chirino D. 24. de la Fuente M. 23. Embarba A. 33. Junyent Q. 26. Kone K. 13. Martinez F. (G) 10. Melamed N. 7. Morcillo J. 3. Munoz A. 5. Pulido J. 20. Sola A. 31. Yaakobishvili A. (G)	17. Cantero M. 9. Fores A. 4. Galdames P. 21. Garcia F. 35. Gonzalez D. (G) 24. Lencina S. 2. Lizancos A. 36. Martinez I. 11. Mollejo V. 30. Monedero M. (G) 3. Vilarrasa I.
Coaches
Garcia Pimienta	Francisco S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Vesga M. ↓, Junyent Q. ↑,
33', Leo Baptistao 🟨,
37', Martinez B. 🟨,
40', 0 - 1, Karrikaburu J. ⚽, Llabres J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', Luna M. 🟨,
59', Leo Baptistao ↓, Embarba A. ↑,
59', Thalys ↓, de la Fuente M. ↑,
59', Luna M. ↓, Chirino D. ↑,
63', Sanchez C. ↓, Lizancos A. ↑,
63', Karrikaburu J. ↓, Fores A. ↑,
63', Llabres J. ↓, Vilarrasa I. ↑,
71', Martinez B. ↓, Galdames P. ↑,
74', Dadie Izagirre A. 🟨,
77', Galdames P. 🟨,
77', 1 - 1, Cipenga B. ⚽, Arribas S. (A),
82', Dadie Izagirre A. ↓, Mollejo V. ↑,
84', 2 - 1, de la Fuente M. ⚽,
87', Lelo L. ↓, Munoz A. ↑,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Playoffs - Semi - finals) and 4th in the Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Playoffs - Semi - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almería won 2.

Both teams are currently displaying solid and consistent form.

Bookmakers give the edge to Almería for this game.

Confirmed absences for Almería: Dzodic S. (International duty) Gui Guedes (Knee Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Ankle Injury) Rodriguez I. U. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Burgos: Appin K. (International duty) Exposito M. (Injury) Gonzalez S. (Injury) Iribarne B. (International duty).

Our forecast points to a victory for Almería in today's match, at odds of 1.61.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Almería has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:5 (averaging 1.3:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Almería against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 5:2 goals (averaging 1.7:0.7 per game).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga2 for now

Almeria: 14.77% Burgos CF: 4.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13:5	8	18
6	Burgos CF	8	4	2	2	12:9	3	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
27.09.26	Mallorca - Almería	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Almería - Celta de Vigo B	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Córdoba - Almería	0:2 ✺
06.09.26	Almería - Cádiz	3:2 ✺
29.08.26	Sabadell - Almería	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWWWL
- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
27.09.26	Burgos - Eldense	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Las Palmas - Burgos	1:2 ✺
11.09.26	Burgos - Ceuta	3:1 ✺
06.09.26	Real Oviedo - Burgos	0:0 ✺
31.08.26	Burgos - Real Sociedad B	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
09.05.26	Burgos - Almería	0:0
14.12.25	Almería - Burgos	1:2
21.03.25	Burgos - Almería	3:1
05.10.24	Almería - Burgos	2:0
30.04.22	Burgos - Almería	0:2
07.11.21	Almería - Burgos	2:0

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