Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 7

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Plantío (Burgos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion 2, LaLiga Hypermotion
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Burgos		Eldense

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.20	3.20	Watch
	2.20	3.10	3.10
	1.98	3.05	3.70	Watch
	2.39	3.25	3.46
	2.09	3.2	3.81	Watch
	2.30	3.10	3.40
	2.25	3.24	3.46	Watch
	2.24	3.15	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (1.8)	3.16 ↓ (3.43)	3.42 ↓ (4.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Burgos
42.6%

Draw
29.8%

Eldense
27.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.4%

27%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

26.4%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burgos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Burgos's form might have worsened.

Eldense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Eldense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Burgos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Eldense than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Eldense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Burgos - Eldense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Burgos (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Burgos (2.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Burgos will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Burgos (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Cantero A. (G) 23. Dadie Izagirre A. 15. Luengo O. 8. Sierra G. (C) 3. Vilarrasa I. 14. Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 12. Vencedor U. 20. Gragera J. 19. Llabres J. 7. Karrikaburu J. 9. Fores A.	1. Vila R. (G) 17. Clemente J. (C) 5. Serradell A. G. 4. Smand F. 3. Larios J. 14. Smith J. 15. Guirao C. 10. Fidel 12. Lopez R. 33. Olabarrieta A. 7. Rastrojo J.
Substitutes
17. Cantero M. 18. del Cerro S. 4. Galdames P. 21. Garcia F. 39. Hernaiz D. 24. Lencina S. 2. Lizancos A. 22. Martinez B. 36. Martinez I. 11. Mollejo V. 30. Monedero M. (G) 16. Sanchez C.	8. Bustillo M. 6. Calvo B. 19. Ibarrondo A. 13. Juanpa (G) 18. Macho G. 24. Martinez J. 11. Nieto M. 2. Recio I. 29. Rodrigues D. 20. Rubio W. 22. Yanda J.
Coaches
Francisco S.	Calleja J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Serradell A. G. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Gonzalez Ballesteros D. ⚽, Fores A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Vencedor U. 🟨,
59', Lopez R. ↓, Rubio W. ↑,
59', Fidel ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
61', Karrikaburu J. ↓, Lencina S. ↑,
61', Llabres J. ↓, Mollejo V. ↑,
71', Vilarrasa I. ↓, Martinez B. ↑,
71', Fores A. ↓, Sanchez C. ↑,
71', Rastrojo J. ↓, Nieto M. ↑,
71', Guirao C. ↓, Macho G. ↑,
80', Clemente J. ↓, Ibarrondo A. ↑,
83', Vencedor U. ↓, Galdames P. ↑,
86', Lencina S. 🟨,
87', Larios J. 🟨,
90+1', Luengo O. 🟨,

Preview

A clear contrast in standings as an upper-tier team meets a relegation-threatened side (ranked 7th and 18th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Burgos may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Burgos carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Burgos: Appin K. (International duty) Iribarne B. (International duty) Lizancos A. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Eldense: Bustillo M. (Injury) Cabanes P. (Injury) Calvo B. (Injury) Carmona M. (Injury) Martin J. (Injury) Olaizola J. (Injury) Ruiz D. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Burgos: Gonzalez S. (Injury).

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Burgos has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:5 (averaging 0.4:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Burgos against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:2 goals (averaging 1:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Burgos CF	9	4	2	3	12:10	2	14
15	Eldense	9	3	2	4	10:11	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Burgos - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.4%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
20.09.26	Las Palmas - Burgos	1:2 ✺
11.09.26	Burgos - Ceuta	3:1 ✺
06.09.26	Real Oviedo - Burgos	0:0 ✺
31.08.26	Burgos - Real Sociedad B	2:2 ✺
23.08.26	Sporting de Gijón - Burgos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWTTL
- CD Eldense
Spanish LaLiga2
19.09.26	Eldense - Eibar	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Sporting de Gijón - Eldense	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Eldense - Mallorca	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Leganés - Eldense	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Eldense - Cádiz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
29.03.25	Eldense - Burgos	0:0
08.12.24	Burgos - Eldense	1:0
10.05.24	Burgos - Eldense	1:2
05.11.23	Eldense - Burgos	2:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
22.12.22	Eldense - Burgos	1:0

Upcoming Matches