Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA - ROUND 4

Date: 1 September 2023, Friday

Location: Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos (Almería)

Referee: Bengoetxea R. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Finland	CMore MAX
France	beIN Sports
Greece	Nova Sports
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2
Portugal	Eleven Sports 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	Viaplay


	Almería		Celta de Vigo

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.3	2.45	Watch
	2.85	3.4	2.6
	2.9	3.3	2.45
	3.02	3.36	2.55
	2.75	3.1	2.3
	2.93	3.34	2.44	Watch
	2.95	3.4	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.38)	3.31 ↓ (3.42)	2.47 ↓ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: ESPN Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Almería
32.8%

Draw
28.7%

Celta de Vigo
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

27.5%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

28.1%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Almería's form might have worsened.

Celta de Vigo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Celta de Vigo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Almería, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Celta de Vigo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.1%	31.7%	34.1%

Almería - Celta de Vigo Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Almería will win (votes: 14 - 34.1%). Celta will win (votes: 14 - 34.1%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 31.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Almería: 19.6% – 48.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Maximiano L. (G) 18. Pubill M. 21. Chumi 2. Kaiky 15. Akieme S. 4. Baba I. 5. Robertone L. 7. Ramazani L. 11. Melero G. 10. Embarba A. 9. Suarez L.	13. Villar I. (G) 3. Mingueza O. 4. Nunez U. 2. Starfelt C. 28. Dominguez C. 23. Sanchez M. 10. Aspas I. (C) 8. Beltran F. 14. de la Torre L. 17. Bamba J. 18. Larsen J. S.
Substitutes
19. Arribas S. 20. Centelles A. 23. Kone I. 14. Lazaro 12. Leo Baptistao 6. Lopy D. 1. Marino D. (G) 13. Martinez F. (G) 24. Mendes H. 29. Milovanovic M. 17. Pozo A. 8. Puigmal A.	15. Aidoo J. 6. Dotor C. 12. Douvikas A. 27. Garcia R. (G) 1. Marchesin A. (G) 29. Rodriguez M. 30. Sotelo H. 19. Swedberg W. 5. Tapia R. 20. Vazquez K.
Coaches
Moreno V.	Benitez R.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Almería won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Almería: Gonzalez E. (Red Card) Svidersky M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Celta: Cervi F. (Muscle Injury) Paciencia G. (Calf Injury) Perez C. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Almería: Sanca M. (Knee Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Almería won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 17-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Almería won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga
26.08.23	Cádiz - Almería	1:1 ✺
19.08.23	Almería - Real Madrid	1:3 ✺
11.08.23	Almería - Rayo Vallecano	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.08.23	Granada - Almería	0:1 ✺
31.07.23	Almería - Antequera	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLLWT
- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
25.08.23	Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
19.08.23	Real Sociedad - Celta de Vigo	1:1 ✺
13.08.23	Celta de Vigo - Osasuna	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
08.08.23	Compostela - Celta de Vigo	0:3 ✺
05.08.23	Wolfsburg - Celta de Vigo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
02.04.23	Celta de Vigo - Almería	2:2
29.10.22	Almería - Celta de Vigo	3:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.12.15	Celta de Vigo - Almería	1:0
02.12.15	Almería - Celta de Vigo	1:3
Spanish LaLiga
04.05.15	Almería - Celta de Vigo	2:2
19.12.14	Celta de Vigo - Almería	0:1
20.04.14	Almería - Celta de Vigo	2:4

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