Match Info

LaLiga - Round 27

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio de Balaídos (Vigo)

Referee: Diaz I. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Canada	TSN+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cuba	Tele Rebelde
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Ecuador	ESPN
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Madagascar	UpTV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Sport 1, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 5, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 2, M+ LaLiga
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Disney+, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, Fubo Sports Network
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 15, SCTV 22


	Celta de Vigo		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.4	2.45	Watch
	3.7	3.7	1.93
	2.98	3.2	2.48	Watch
	3.09	3.35	2.58
	3.31	3.31	2.34	Watch
	2.9	3.2	2.38
	3.12	3.46	2.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↓ (4.21)	3.37 ↓ (4.24)	2.36 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celta de Vigo
30.8%

Draw
28.5%

Real Madrid
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.6%

22.4%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.3%

22.1%

55.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celta de Vigo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Celta de Vigo's performance.

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Celta de Vigo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+15%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.7%	9.8%	69.5%

Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 81 users predict this event. Celta will win (votes: 16 - 19.8%). Real will win (votes: 57 - 70.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 9.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 60.5% – 80.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Celta (2.14) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DNB - Real (1.72) (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Real (2.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Real (1.40) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 11 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH -0.5 - Real (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (17 of 20 users predict this - 85%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 34 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 8 - 23.5%). Real (votes: 26 - 76.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Radu I. (G) 32. Rodriguez J. 2. Starfelt C. (C) 20. Alonso M. 5. Carreira S. 16. Roman M. 6. Moriba I. 3. Mingueza O. 9. Jutgla F. 7. Iglesias B. 19. Swedberg W.	1. Courtois T. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 17. Asencio R. 22. Rudiger A. 23. Mendy F. 8. Valverde F. (C) 15. Guler A. 14. Tchouameni A. 45. Pitarch T. 21. Diaz B. 7. Vinicius Junior
Substitutes
4. Aidoo J. 23. Alvarez H. 10. Aspas I. 24. Dominguez C. 39. El Abdellaoui J. 12. Fernandez M. 8. Lopez F. 14. Nunez A. 17. Rueda J. 22. Sotelo H. 15. Vecino M. 1. Villar I. (G)	27. Aguado D. 2. Carvajal D. 28. Cestero Sancho J. 48. Fati L. 20. Garcia F. 16. Garcia G. 13. Lunin A. (G) 43. Mestre S. (G) 37. Moran M. A. 38. Palacios C.
Coaches
Giraldez C.	Arbeloa A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Tchouameni A. ⚽, Guler A. (A),
25', 1 - 1, Iglesias B. ⚽, Swedberg W. (A),
31', Iglesias B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', Guler A. ↓, Palacios C. ↑,
69', Swedberg W. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
70', Jutgla F. ↓, Alvarez H. ↑,
70', Iglesias B. ↓, El Abdellaoui J. ↑,
77', Diaz B. ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
83', Mingueza O. ↓, Aspas I. ↑,
86', Tchouameni A. 🟨,
90', Pitarch T. ↓, Moran M. A. ↑,
90', Asencio R. 🟨,
90+1', Moriba I. ↓, Vecino M. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 2, Valverde F. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Celta won 1.

Celta is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Real has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Celta: Duran P. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Calf Injury) Bellingham J. (Hamstring Injury) Carreras A. (Yellow Cards) Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Huijsen D. (Yellow Cards) Mastantuono F. (Red Card) Mbappe K. (Knee Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Celta: Cervi F. (Coach's decision)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Celta won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 21:58. (average 1.1:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Celta won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 11:27. (average 1.1:2.7).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Madrid: 20.11% Celta Vigo: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18:8	10	15
15	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8:6	2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
01.03.26	Girona - Celta de Vigo	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Celta de Vigo - PAOK	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
22.02.26	Celta de Vigo - Mallorca	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	PAOK - Celta de Vigo	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.02.26	Espanyol - Celta de Vigo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWWWT
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
02.03.26	Real Madrid - Getafe	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.02.26	Real Madrid - Benfica	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
21.02.26	Osasuna - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Benfica - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.02.26	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
07.12.25	Real Madrid - Celta de Vigo	0:2
04.05.25	Real Madrid - Celta de Vigo	3:2
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.01.25	Real Madrid - Celta de Vigo	5:2 ET
Spanish LaLiga
19.10.24	Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid	1:2
10.03.24	Real Madrid - Celta de Vigo	4:0
25.08.23	Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid	0:1
22.04.23	Real Madrid - Celta de Vigo	2:0

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