Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 6

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: UD Almería Stadium (Almería)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Dsports 9
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1
Ecuador	DSports 9
France	beIN Sports MAX 8
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DSports 9
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Orange Futbol 2
Sweden	TV4 Play
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5


	Almería		Sporting de Gijón

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.7	3.9	Watch
	1.85	3.6	3.85
	1.89	3.83	4.26
	3.93	3.47	1.92	Watch
	1.85	3.79	4.21	Watch
	1.73	3.7	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (1.7)	3.68 ↓ (4)	3.76 ↓ (4.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
46.1%

Draw
27.2%

Sporting de Gijón
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

24%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

25.9%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Almería's form might have worsened.

Sporting de Gijón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sporting de Gijón's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+14.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Almería, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting de Gijón than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sporting de Gijón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Almería - Sporting de Gijón Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Almería will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Sporting de Gijón will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Almería: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Sporting de Gijón (2.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Almería will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 3 - 75%). Sporting de Gijón (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 22. Chirino D. 4. Monte N. 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 14. Baba I. 17. Lopy D. 23. Embarba A. 11. Arribas S. 10. Melamed N. 12. Leo Baptistao (C)	1. Yanez R. (G) 2. Rosas G. 15. Vazquez P. 4. Perrin L. 5. Sanchez D. 14. Corredera A. 24. Smith J. 17. Dubasin J. 10. Gelabert Pina C. 7. Campos G. (C) 19. Otero J.
Substitutes
20. Centelles A. 5. Clua S. 29. Dzodic S. 8. Gui Guedes 15. Hernandez A. 6. Horta A. 16. Luna M. 13. Martinez F. (G) 36. Perovic M. 2. Puigmal A. 19. Soko P. 9. Thalys	9. Caicedo J. 16. Cortes O. 3. Garcia P. 13. Joel C. (G) 22. Kembo Y. 6. Martin N. 28. Mbemba P. 32. Prendes E. O. 11. Queipo D. 20. Vazquez K.
Coaches
Rubi	Garitano A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Campos G. ⚽, Otero J. (A),
25', Lopy D. ↓, Gui Guedes ↑,
45+4', Rosas G. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Melamed N. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
46', Leo Baptistao ↓, Thalys ↑,
51', Rosas G. 🟨,
51', Otero J. 🟨,
52', Corredera A. 🟨,
55', 1 - 1, Embarba A. ⚽, Puigmal A. (A),
57', Dubasin J. ↓, Vazquez K. ↑,
58', Gelabert Pina C. ↓, Martin N. ↑,
68', Campos G. ↓, Garcia P. ↑,
68', Smith J. ↓, Cortes O. ↑,
69', Baba I. ↓, Horta A. ↑,
75', Thalys 🟨,
76', Horta A. 🟨,
79', Vazquez P. 🟨,
85', 2 - 1, Arribas S. ⚽, Puigmal A. (A),
88', Perrin L. 🟨,
90+3', Munoz A. 🟨,
90+3', Sanchez D. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
90+5', Munoz A. ↓, Centelles A. ↑,
90+8', Bonini F. 🟨,
90+11', Corredera A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almería won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Almería is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Sporting de Gijón: Bernal J. (Injury) Coundoul A. (Injury) Curbelo E. (Injury) Loum M. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Almería won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Almería won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 0.9:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
13.09.25	Valladolid - Almería	3:1 ✺
07.09.25	Almería - Racing Santander	2:3 ✺
29.08.25	Real Sociedad B - Almería	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	Leonesa - Almería	0:1 ✺
18.08.25	Almería - Albacete Balompié	4:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLTWT
- Sporting de Gijón
Spanish LaLiga2
14.09.25	Sporting de Gijón - Burgos	2:3 ✺
06.09.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Sporting de Gijón	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Sporting de Gijón - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Ceuta - Sporting de Gijón	0:1 ✺
18.08.25	Sporting de Gijón - Córdoba	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
22.02.25	Sporting de Gijón - Almería	1:1
31.08.24	Almería - Sporting de Gijón	1:1
25.04.22	Almería - Sporting de Gijón	1:0
02.11.21	Sporting de Gijón - Almería	0:1
30.05.21	Sporting de Gijón - Almería	0:2
04.10.20	Almería - Sporting de Gijón	0:1
01.07.20	Almería - Sporting de Gijón	1:0

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