Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 18

Date: 15 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata)

Referee: Sosa N. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Alvarado		Colegiales

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.63	3.5	Watch
	2.35	2.75	3.2
	2.38	2.72	3.3	Watch
	2.47	2.72	3.61
	2.37	2.83	3.23	Watch
	2.38	2.75	3.3
	2.44	2.65	3.39
	2.38	2.72	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (3.1)	2.72 ↑ (2.53)	3.35 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvarado
38.5%

Draw
34%

Colegiales
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

36%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

32.7%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvarado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alvarado's performance.

Colegiales has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Colegiales might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alvarado that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colegiales than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Alvarado - Colegiales Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Alvarado will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Alvarado (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 3. Aleo A. 4. Ardiles F. 10. Becker D. (C) 8. Bolivar A. 9. Bolzicco T. 11. Gobetto J. 6. Irazoque A. 5. Mansilla M. 7. Martinez E. 2. Silva K.	1. Di Fulvio E. (C) 10. Castillo L. 9. Franco N. 4. Malagueno F. 5. Marin F. 7. Marra L. 6. Martinez L. 8. Montiel F. 11. Ocampo E. 3. Rodriguez M. 2. Strasorier S.
Substitutes
18. Amilivia T. 15. Ascacibar J. 19. Borgnino M. 16. Castellano A. 13. Fernandez T. 12. Henricot F. (G) 17. Miori M. 20. Ortiz D. 14. Werro V.	17. Almada T. 18. Bermejo M. 15. Cancio J. 14. Duarte L. 16. Gimenez L. 20. Marin A. 19. Robaldo V. 12. Rojas J. (G) 13. Silguero S.
Coaches
Vazquez M.	Fernandez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Bolzicco T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Malagueno F. ↓, Robaldo V. ↑,
49', Marin F. 🟥,
64', Becker D. ↓, Amilivia T. ↑,
64', Bolzicco T. ↓, Miori M. ↑,
73', Montiel F. ↓, Marin A. ↑,
75', Martinez E. ↓, Borgnino M. ↑,
79', Castillo L. ↓, Almada T. ↑,
83', Marra L. ↓, Gimenez L. ↑,
84', Bolivar A. ↓, Ascacibar J. ↑,
85', Ardiles F. ↓, Fernandez T. ↑,
90', Di Fulvio E. 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Alvarado is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Colegiales is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Alvarado may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Alvarado could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alvarado won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
06.06.25	Los Andes - Alvarado	1:0 ✺
01.06.25	Alvarado - Arsenal Sarandí	0:2 ✺
25.05.25	All Boys - Alvarado	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Alvarado - Deportivo Madryn	0:2 ✺
04.05.25	Deportivo Maipú - Alvarado	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTLL
- CA Colegiales
Argentinian Primera Nacional
01.06.25	Deportivo Madryn - Colegiales	3:1 ✺
25.05.25	Colegiales - Deportivo Maipú	0:1 ✺
18.05.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Colegiales	4:0 ✺
10.05.25	Colegiales - Tristán Suárez	1:0 ✺
02.05.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Colegiales	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
08.02.25	Colegiales - Alvarado	0:0

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