Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 6

Date: 29 September 2024, Sunday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Referee: Ramalho P. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV+


	Alverca		Leixões

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.9	2.2
	2.9	3	2.2
	3.1	3.1	2.35
	3.24	3.18	2.41
	3.17	3.12	2.33	Watch
	2.9	3.2	2.2
	3.13	3.18	2.32	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.45)	3.1 ↓ (3.2)	2.3 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca
30%

Draw
29.8%

Leixões
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

29%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

29.4%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alverca's form might have worsened.

Leixões has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leixões's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alverca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leixões, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	28.6%	71.4%

Alverca - Leixões Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Leixões will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Joao Bravim (G) 3. Oliveira A. 5. Varela F. 13. Paulo Eduardo 16. Pires M. 88. Martins D. 25. Dias R. (C) 11. Luiz Miguel 7. Brenner 9. Carter A. 10. Andrezinho	24. Figueira Daniel (G) 12. Jean Felipe 5. Rafael 14. Basto H. 15. Simaozinho 11. Andre 6. Paulinho 16. Simoes A. (C) 7. Werton 91. Valente R. 10. Paulite
Substitutes
40. Ageu E. 8. Bessa E. 18. Eduardo W. 89. Joao Marcos 52. Lucas Kawan 35. Pedro Bicalho 23. Silva P. (G) 36. Thauan Lara 6. Velazquez S.	13. Evrard Zag 27. Fabinho 23. Henrique Gelain 77. Ndo R. 20. Oliveira J. 8. Rafa 9. Rafael Martins 3. Rafael Santos 51. Stefanovic I. (G)
Coaches
Costa V.	Fangueiro C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Andrezinho ⚽,
22', Oliveira A. 🟨,
24', Rafael 🟨,
28', Paulo Eduardo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Paulite ↓, Rafael Martins ↑,
47', Brenner 🟨,
54', 1 - 1, Paulinho ⚽,
60', Andrezinho ↓, Bessa E. ↑,
60', Martins D. ↓, Pedro Bicalho ↑,
66', Werton ↓, Ndo R. ↑,
74', Carter A. ↓, Joao Marcos ↑,
74', Brenner ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,
75', Jean Felipe ↓, Rafael Santos ↑,
75', Rafael ↓, Oliveira J. ↑,
78', Paulinho ↓, Fabinho ↑,
90', Dias R. ↓, Ageu E. ↑,
90+2', Ndo R. 🟨,
90+5', Fabinho 🟨,

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 11 and 8).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Taça de Portugal
22.09.24	Coimbrões - Alverca	2:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
15.09.24	Marítimo - Alverca	1:2 ✺
30.08.24	Alverca - Académico de Viseu	0:4 ✺
23.08.24	Leiria - Alverca	1:1 ✺
17.08.24	Alverca - Felgueiras	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WWLTT
- Leixões SC
Taça de Portugal
22.09.24	Guarda FC - Leixões	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
15.09.24	Leixões - Vizela	0:1 ✺
31.08.24	Oliveirense - Leixões	0:1 ✺
24.08.24	Leixões - Paços de Ferreira	3:3 ✺
18.08.24	Chaves - Leixões	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLWTT

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