Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Referee: Lima F. (Por)


	Chaves		Leixões

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.3
	2.2	3.1	2.85
	2.15	3.2	3.3
	2.21	3.3	3.55
	2.16	3.22	3.46	Watch
	2.15	3	3.1
	2.15	3.2	3.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (2.13)	3.16 ↑ (3.12)	3.28 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
42.8%

Draw
29.1%

Leixões
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

29.9%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

30.7%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Leixões has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Chaves - Leixões Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Leixões will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vozinha (C) 5. Kiko 29. Tounkara M. 33. Simoes T. 3. Romero A. 8. Pinho P. 20. Ktatau 30. Kusso D. 10. Rodrigues A. 77. Reinaldo 17. Roberto	1. Morro M. (G) 2. Fonseca F. 14. Matheus Costa 3. Figueiredo L. 30. Serif N. 66. Balde A. 20. Miguel Sousa 22. Araujo C. 11. Agra S. (C) 35. Rochez B. 33. Luccas Paraizo
Substitutes
34. Alves R. 44. Bikoro F. 7. Delgado J. 6. Eboudje B. 27. Esajas R. 23. Gudzulic M. (G) 18. Pereira H. 26. Rodrigues G. 21. Wellington Carvalho	13. Evrard Zag 68. Goncalves A. 18. Kanuric B. 28. Pina R. 44. Semeu 15. Simaozinho 51. Stefanovic I. (G) 91. Valente R. 7. Werton
Coaches
Martins V.	Fangueiro C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', Araujo C. 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Roberto (Penalty Awarded),
24', Tounkara M. 🟨,
32', 1 - 1, Luccas Paraizo ⚽, Serif N. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Figueiredo L. 🟨,
69', 1 - 2, Rochez B. ⚽, Luccas Paraizo (A),
70', Kiko ↓, Esajas R. ↑,
70', Romero A. ↓, Delgado J. ↑,
71', Araujo C. ↓, Semeu ↑,
71', Agra S. ↓, Werton ↑,
81', Luccas Paraizo ↓, Pina R. ↑,
82', Roberto ↓, Pereira H. ↑,
82', Ktatau ↓, Rodrigues G. ↑,
86', Fonseca F. ↓, Goncalves A. ↑,
86', Serif N. ↓, Simaozinho ↑,
88', Rodrigues A. ↓, Wellington Carvalho ↑,
88', Matheus Costa 🟨,
90', Pinho P. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 2.

Chaves has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Leixões is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Leixões may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Chaves might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:12. (average 1.4:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Chaves won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:7. (average 1.6:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Leixoes	6	3	1	2	8:6	2	10
16	Chaves	6	1	1	4	5:13	-8	4

Last Results with these Odds

Chaves - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 43.81%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
03.05.26	Portimonense - Chaves	3:2 ✺
27.04.26	Chaves - Oliveirense	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Paços de Ferreira - Chaves	4:3 ✺
11.04.26	Chaves - Torreense	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Porto B - Chaves	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLWL
- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
01.05.26	Marítimo - Leixões	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Leixões - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
20.04.26	Porto B - Leixões	0:3 ✺
12.04.26	Leixões - Oliveirense	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Torreense - Leixões	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
16.11.25	Leixões - Chaves	0:1
Club Friendly
30.07.25	Leixões - Chaves	0:1
Portuguese Liga 2
25.01.25	Leixões - Chaves	0:0
18.08.24	Chaves - Leixões	0:0
Club Friendly
31.07.24	Chaves - Leixões	3:3
Portuguese Liga 2
24.01.22	Leixões - Chaves	1:1
16.08.21	Chaves - Leixões	1:1

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