Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/32-finals

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa (Leiria)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Leiria		Alverca

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.1	2.25
	2.92	3.25	2.38
	3	3.45	2.42
	1.66	3.24	5.68	Watch
	2.7	3.32	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (2.65)	3.27 ↑ (3.2)	3.04 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leiria
37.6%

Draw
30%

Alverca
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

28.9%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

28.7%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Leiria - Alverca Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
	31. Mateus Oliveira (G)
	21. Abdulai S.
	8. Amorim
	55. Chissumba
	22. Esteves G.
	5. Gomez S.
	18. Lincoln
	33. Meupiyou B.
	4. Naves
	11. Nuozzi C.
	91. Sandro Lima

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Munoz J. ⚽,
15', 🟨,
22', 🟨,
40', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
64', 🟨,
66', 🟨,
74', 2 - 0, Michel D. ⚽,
81', 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 1, Marezi ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 2, Naves ⚽,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
92', 🟨,
110', 🟨,
110', 🟥,
112', 🟨,
115', 🟨,
116', 🟨,
120', 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 2)
1, (Pen),
1, (Pen),
2, (Pen),
2, (Pen),
3, (Pen),
3, (Pen),
4, (Pen),
4, (Pen),
5, (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leiria won 2.

Leiria is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Alverca has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alverca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Leiria won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Leiria won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
11.10.25	Leiria - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Portimonense - Leiria	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Sacavenense - Leiria	2:4 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
14.09.25	Porto B - Leiria	1:2 ✺
29.08.25	Leiria - Torreense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TTWWW
- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
04.10.25	AVS - Alverca	1:3 ✺
28.09.25	Alverca - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Santa Clara - Alverca	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Alverca - Tondela	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Alverca - Benfica	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
02.02.25	Alverca - Leiria	2:1
23.08.24	Leiria - Alverca	1:1
Portuguese Liga 3
22.04.23	Alverca - Leiria	1:2
02.04.23	Leiria - Alverca	3:1
08.01.23	Leiria - Alverca	1:2
27.08.22	Alverca - Leiria	0:1
Portuguese Liga 2
15.05.22	Leiria - Alverca	1:2

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