Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 7

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Referee: Costa B. J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6


	Alverca		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.25	2.45	Watch
	2.92	2.98	2.58	Watch
	3.03	3.15	2.62
	2.11	2.98	3.92	Watch
				Watch
	2.9	3.13	2.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↓ (3.42)	3.1 ↓ (3.38)	2.83 ↑ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca
35%

Draw
31%

Vitoria Guimarães
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.8%

28.1%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

28.4%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alverca's performance.

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vitoria Guimarães might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alverca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitoria Guimarães could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	16.7%	61.1%

Alverca - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Guimarães will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vitoria Guimarães will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Gomes A. (G) 4. Naves 5. Gomez S. (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 21. Abdulai S. 8. Amorim 55. Chissumba 18. Lincoln 9. Marezi 20. Figueiredo	25. Castillo J. (G) 2. Maga 4. Rivas Viondi O. 26. Abascal R. 13. Mendes J. II. 16. Beni 6. Mitrovic M. 18. Arcanjo T. 88. Nogueira M. 48. Saviolo N. 7. Oliveira N. (C)
Substitutes
28. Cabezas G. 22. Esteves G. 6. Gui D. 19. Leite T. 88. Martins D. 31. Mateus Oliveira (G) 16. Mendes T. 11. Nuozzi C. 91. Sandro Lima	22. Blanco F. 19. Camara O. 27. Charles Silva (G) 21. Felix V. 17. Lebedenko O. 90. Ndoye A. 3. Nobrega M. 20. Samu 23. Sousa D.
Coaches
Custodio	Pinto L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Abdulai S. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Marezi (Pen),
45+2', Abdulai S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Saviolo N. ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
46', Beni ↓, Samu ↑,
46', Figueiredo ↓, Mendes T. ↑,
60', Arcanjo T. ↓, Ndoye A. ↑,
66', Marezi ↓, Sandro Lima ↑,
71', Mendes J. II. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
71', Nogueira M. ↓, Felix V. ↑,
72', Lincoln ↓, Gui D. ↑,
79', Gomes A. 🟨,
90+5', Amorim ↓, Cabezas G. ↑,
90+7', 2 - 0, Sandro Lima ⚽, Mendes T. (A),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 8).

Alverca is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Guimarães has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Guimarães may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Alverca: Leo Chu (Inactive)

There are questionable in Alverca: Chiquinho (Injury)

There are questionable in Guimarães: Gustavo (Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
20.09.25	Santa Clara - Alverca	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Alverca - Tondela	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Alverca - Benfica	1:2 ✺
25.08.25	Estrela da Amadora - Alverca	2:2 ✺
17.08.25	Alverca - Braga	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLTL
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
20.09.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Estrela da Amadora - Vitoria Guimarães	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Estoril Praia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWTLW

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