Match Info

Serie B - Round 32

Date: 7 October 2026, Wednesday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN


	América Mineiro		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	4.10	3.30	1.91	Watch
	3.90	3.25	1.87
	3.75	3.40	1.94	Watch
	4.06	3.63	1.98
	4.03	3.51	1.88
	4.00	3.50	1.92
	4.41	3.30	1.86	Watch
	3.95	3.35	1.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.03 ↑ (3.3)	3.41 ↑ (3.25)	1.91 ↓ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
23.3%

Draw
27.5%

Fortaleza
49.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

28.7%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

27.9%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fortaleza's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	7.1%	92.9%

América Mineiro - Fortaleza Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.75, 2nd Half - over (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (1.57) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Fortaleza (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Fortaleza (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fortaleza will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. William (G) 31. Fabio 4. Rafa Barcelos 3. Sosa L. 25. Ostchega T. 88. Gustavo Barreto 55. Otavio Goncalves 20. Paulo Victor 77. Segovia M. 7. Guilherme Parede 9. Willian Bigode (C)	1. Joao Ricardo (C) 22. Mailton 3. Lucas Gazal 6. Cardona T. 13. Mauricio Junior 88. Lucas Sasha 5. Pierre 75. Rodriguinho 11. Vitinho 17. Nathan Fogaca 32. Luiz Fernando
Substitutes
27. Cassio Meneses (G) 71. Cristian 8. Felipe Amaral 32. Filipe Dahora 93. Jorge Jimenez 37. Julio Cesar 26. Manoel 99. Marcelo Macola 30. Montes L. 45. Ricardo Silva	21. Cantillo J. 12. Henrique Kaio 10. Lucas Crispim 9. Miritello J. B. 23. Neris 28. Paulinho 16. Pedro Henrique 29. Rodrigo 8. Ronald 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton
Coaches
Gonzaga Leite D.	Autuori P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Lucas Sasha ⚽,
9', Fabio ↓, Filipe Dahora ↑,
22', Pierre 🟨,
41', Rafa Barcelos 🟨,
45+1', Otavio Goncalves 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Guilherme Parede ↓, Montes L. ↑,
48', Lucas Gazal 🟨,
57', Rodriguinho ↓, Lucas Crispim ↑,
58', Vitinho ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
70', Otavio Goncalves ↓, Felipe Amaral ↑,
71', Luiz Fernando ↓, Cantillo J. ↑,
71', Nathan Fogaca ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
85', Segovia M. ↓, Marcelo Macola ↑,
85', Paulo Victor ↓, Julio Cesar ↑,
87', Mauricio Junior ↓, Henrique Kaio ↑,
89', Montes L. 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 19th in the Relegation - Serie C (First stage: ) and 5th in the Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Playoffs - Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América MG won 2.

Recent results have been tough for América MG (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Fortaleza shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, Fortaleza has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this matchup, Fortaleza is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for América MG: Ale (Injury) Bruno Brigido (Injury) Eduardo Person (Inactive) Emerson Santos (Surgery) Gabriel Domingos (Knee Injury) Gonzalo Mastriani (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Fortaleza: Chico (Inactive) Fuentes G. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Fortaleza: Miritello J. B. (Inactive).

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, América MG has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:21 (averaging 1.3:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for América MG against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 7:7 goals (averaging 1.4:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
19	America MG	32	4	5	23	21:53	-32	17

Last Results with these Odds

América Mineiro - the odds 3.3 are the expected chance of winning is 28.22%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Fortaleza - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 43.12%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
03.10.26	Atlético Goianiense - América Mineiro	2:0 ✺
28.09.26	América Mineiro - Juventude	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	Vila Nova - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
14.09.26	América Mineiro - São Bernardo	0:2 ✺
09.09.26	América Mineiro - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLLLW
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
02.10.26	Fortaleza - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
27.09.26	Fortaleza - Athletic Club	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Londrina - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Fortaleza - Ceará	1:1 ✺
09.09.26	Fortaleza - Avaí	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
16.06.26	Fortaleza - América Mineiro	0:3
Brazilian Serie A
08.10.23	Fortaleza - América Mineiro	3:2
Copa Sudamericana
31.08.23	Fortaleza - América Mineiro	2:1
24.08.23	América Mineiro - Fortaleza	1:3
Brazilian Serie A
20.05.23	América Mineiro - Fortaleza	2:1
15.10.22	América Mineiro - Fortaleza	1:2
19.06.22	Fortaleza - América Mineiro	1:0

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