Match Info

Serie B - Round 29

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Vitorino Goncalves Dias (VGD) (Londrina)

Referee: Silveira L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Disney+, ESPN, Xsports


	Londrina		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.00	2.82	Watch
	2.55	3.00	2.70
	2.75	2.95	2.70	Watch
	2.73	3.11	2.89
	2.91	3.03	2.56	Watch
	2.60	2.90	2.80
	2.72	2.97	2.74	Watch
	2.50	3.00	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↓ (3.45)	3 ↓ (3.25)	2.76 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Londrina
34.9%

Draw
31.2%

Fortaleza
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27%

28.7%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.6%

28.3%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Londrina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Londrina's performance.

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fortaleza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Londrina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortaleza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Londrina - Fortaleza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 2. Nino Paraiba 15. Gabriel Lacerda 4. Wallace (C) 34. Heron 5. Tarik 17. Joao Coni 77. Guilherme Dantas 20. Joao Vitor 28. Herbert 99. Igor Bahia	1. Joao Ricardo (C) 22. Mailton 3. Lucas Gazal 6. Cardona T. 12. Henrique Kaio 75. Rodriguinho 5. Pierre 8. Ronald 11. Vitinho 91. Chico 32. Luiz Fernando
Substitutes
13. Andre Dhominique 55. Chumbinho 27. Guilherme Cachoeira 32. Joao Tavares 18. Juninho 33. Kevyn 1. Luan Ribeiro (G) 8. Lucas Marques 11. Pablo Dyego 96. Thalis 7. Vitinho Mota 23. Willian Pottker	21. Cantillo J. 4. Luan Freitas 10. Lucas Crispim 38. Lucca Prior 13. Mauricio Junior 17. Nathan Fogaca 23. Neris 28. Paulinho 77. Paulo Baya 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton
Coaches
Rogerio Micale	Autuori P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Heron (Own goal),
45+3', Herbert 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
65', Ronald ↓, Neris ↑,
65', Chico ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
68', Guilherme Dantas ↓, Juninho ↑,
68', Joao Coni ↓, Guilherme Cachoeira ↑,
73', Pierre 🟨,
74', 1 - 1, Igor Bahia ⚽, Joao Vitor (A),
77', Joao Vitor ↓, Lucas Marques ↑,
77', Nino Paraiba ↓, Andre Dhominique ↑,
84', Igor Bahia ↓, Willian Pottker ↑,
88', 1 - 2, Neris ⚽, Lucas Gazal (A),
90+4', Vitinho ↓, Ryan ↑,
90+5', Lucas Marques 🟨,
90+7', Mailton ↓, Luan Freitas ↑,
90+7', Willian Pottker 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 18th in the Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 4th in the Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ PlayoffsFinal)).

In recent outings, Londrina has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Fortaleza is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Londrina may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Londrina: Caio Rodrigues (Yellow Cards) Geovane Meurer (Injury) Kaue Leonardo (Yellow Cards).

Confirmed absences for Fortaleza: Fuentes G. (Knee Injury) Jailson (Knee Injury) Rodrigo (Yellow Cards).

Doubtful / questionable for Londrina: Paulinho Moccelin (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Fortaleza: Lucas Sasha (Inactive).

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Londrina has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:6 (averaging 0.7:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Londrina against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40:47	-7	28

Last Results with these Odds

Londrina - the odds 3.45 are the expected chance of winning is 26.99%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Fortaleza - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44.35%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie B
15.09.26	Londrina - Ponte Preta	6:0 ✺
10.09.26	São Bernardo - Londrina	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Londrina - Operário Ferroviario	1:2 ✺
01.09.26	Londrina - Juventude	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Ceará - Londrina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWLTL
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
13.09.26	Fortaleza - Ceará	1:1 ✺
09.09.26	Fortaleza - Avaí	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Goiás - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
31.08.26	Fortaleza - Operário Ferroviario	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Criciúma - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
23.05.26	Fortaleza - Londrina	3:0
25.08.18	Fortaleza - Londrina	2:1
01.05.18	Londrina - Fortaleza	1:1

Upcoming Matches