Match Info

Stars League - Round 16

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday


	Amanat Baghdad		Arbil

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.88	2.25
	3.25	2.84	2.25
	3.24	2.94	2.25
	3.1	2.88	2.2
	3.28	2.85	2.25	Watch
	3.2	2.85	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (3.19)	2.87 ↓ (3)	2.24 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amanat Baghdad
28.2%

Draw
31.4%

Arbil
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

30.1%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

29.5%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amanat Baghdad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Arbil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amanat Baghdad than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arbil than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Amanat Baghdad - Arbil Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', 0 - 1, Younis Al Imari D. ⚽,
80', 1 - 1, El Keraa K. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 14 and 3).

Amanat Baghdad has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Arbil has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Arbil might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Amanat Baghdad won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Amanat Baghdad won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Erbil	8	5	2	1	12:3	9	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amanat Baghdad
Iraqi Premier League
26.01.26	Al-Gharraf - Amanat Baghdad	3:2 ✺
22.01.26	Al-Karma - Amanat Baghdad	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Amanat Baghdad - Al-Karkh	1:1 ✺
13.01.26	Amanat Baghdad - Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya	0:2 ✺
09.01.26	Zakho - Amanat Baghdad	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLTLT
- Arbil
Iraqi Premier League
27.01.26	Al-Karkh - Arbil	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	Arbil - Al-Talaba	0:2 ✺
17.01.26	Al-Zawraa - Arbil	1:0 ✺
13.01.26	Arbil - Duhok	2:1 ✺
08.01.26	Al Mosul - Arbil	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
29.02.24	Arbil - Amanat Baghdad	4:1
15.02.22	Amanat Baghdad - Arbil	1:1
17.06.19	Amanat Baghdad - Arbil	2:0
29.07.13	Amanat Baghdad - Arbil	1:0

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