Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 8

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith (Manaus)


	Amazonas		Ferroviária

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	2.88	3.2	Watch
	2.24	3.1	3.59
	2.27	2.88	3.56	Watch
	2.2	2.75	3.25
	2.17	2.82	3.5	Watch
	1.74	3.2	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.73)	2.94 ↓ (3.2)	3.67 ↓ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amazonas
43.3%

Draw
31.5%

Ferroviária
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

28.5%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

28.3%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amazonas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Amazonas's form might have worsened.

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ferroviária's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amazonas than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Amazonas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ferroviária, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Amazonas - Ferroviária Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Renan (G) 6. Fabiano (C) 26. Gabriel Domingos 25. Italo Silva 4. Iury 8. Jhonny Lucas 7. Marcelo Cirino 3. Marcel Scalese 30. Nunez P. 17. Rafael Vitor 9. Ronaldo	31. Denis Junior (G) 10. Albano 8. Alencar 38. Allison 9. Denilson Chaves 29. Eduardo Oliveira 22. Felipe Rodrigues (C) 13. Gustavo Medina 30. Raoni 11. Vitor Barreto 40. Ze Vitor
Substitutes
13. Alyson 12. Axel Lopes (G) 20. Castro P. 14. Diego Ivo 27. Fabinho 19. Kauan Firmo 16. Leo Guerra 21. Marcondes 5. Panzariello I. 10. Rafael Tavares 22. Victor Jesus 11. Vinicius Leite	24. Carvalho I. (G) 20. David Souza 36. Douglas Skilo 7. Fabio Soares 15. Fernandinho 4. Guilherme Ferreira 33. Pedro Estevam 18. Rafael Carillho 6. Rhuan 5. Ricardinho 23. Schilling Arthur
Coaches
Sauthier B.	Rogerio Correa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Italo Silva 🟨,
21', Raoni 🟨,
40', Ze Vitor 🟨,
41', Jhonny Lucas 🟨,
41', Ronaldo 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 0, Ronaldo ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Nunez P. ↓, Victor Jesus ↑,
46', Italo Silva ↓, Alyson ↑,
46', Raoni ↓, Rafael Carillho ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Denilson Chaves ⚽,
56', Ronaldo ↓, Rafael Tavares ↑,
62', Iury ↓, Kauan Firmo ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Denilson Chaves ⚽,
78', Victor Jesus 🟨,
80', Fabiano ↓, Leo Guerra ↑,
86', Allison ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
87', Denilson Chaves ↓, Rhuan ↑,
90', Gustavo Medina 🟨,
90', 🟨,
90+2', Felipe Rodrigues ↓, Guilherme Ferreira ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 14).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Ferroviária may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Amazonas will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Amazonas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Amazonas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Ferroviaria: 23.95%

Last Results with these Odds

Amazonas - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 52.81%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amazonas FC
Brazilian Serie C
16.05.26	Floresta - Amazonas	3:2 ✺
10.05.26	Amazonas - Figueirense	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Amazonas - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
29.04.26	Monte Roraima - Amazonas	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
26.04.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Amazonas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLTTW
- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie C
17.05.26	Ferroviária - Brusque	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
13.05.26	Ferroviária - CA Juventus	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
10.05.26	Volta Redonda - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
07.05.26	CA Juventus - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.26	Ferroviária - Anápolis	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
08.08.25	Ferroviária - Amazonas	2:1
12.04.25	Amazonas - Ferroviária	0:0

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