Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 21

Date: 21 December 2023, Thursday

Location: Lezama Facilities (Lezama)

Referee: Alvendiz L. (Esp)


	Amorebieta		Alcorcón

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	4	Watch
	2.05	3	3.7
	2.1	3.1	3.75	Watch
	2.27	3.15	3.61
	2.14	3.07	4.24
	2	3.1	3.7
	2.06	3.1	3.94	Watch
	2.1	3	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.12)	3.08 ↑ (3.02)	3.85 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amorebieta
44.9%

Draw
30.6%

Alcorcón
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

30.3%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

27%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amorebieta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Alcorcón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amorebieta than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Amorebieta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alcorcón could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Amorebieta - Alcorcón Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Amorebieta will win (votes: 9 - 37.5%). Alcorcón will win (votes: 3 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30% – 70%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Campos P. (G) 15. Nunez A. 4. Manu 28. Garreta F. 16. Lasure D. 7. Dorrio J. 21. Carbonell A. 20. Sibo K. 22. Morcillo J. 9. Jauregi E. 14. Eraso J.	13. Anacker L. (G) 20. Lopez I. 2. Castro J. 23. Chema 19. Quintilla X. 17. Garcia V. 16. Perez J. 18. Eteki Y. 8. Rodriganez J. 21. Obieta K. 9. Borrego C.
Substitutes
19. Aviles J. 29. Da Graca C. M. 10. Edwards R. 24. Gaya J. 13. Magunagoitia J. (G) 2. Mier J. 8. Moran E. 27. Quintero L. 17. Rodriguez R. 11. Seguin I.	22. Artola J. 6. Babin J. 7. Bustos A. 32. Garcia I. 28. Garrido J. 10. Juanma Bravo 15. Lara J. 14. Lopez A. 3. Morillas D. 5. Mosquera P. 4. Rivas Viondi O. 1. Ruiz J. (G)
Coaches
Jandro	Nafti M.

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Amorebieta will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Amorebieta won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Amorebieta won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Amorebieta
Spanish LaLiga2
17.12.23	Amorebieta - Zaragoza	1:1 ✺
09.12.23	Valladolid - Amorebieta	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.12.23	Levante - Amorebieta	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
03.12.23	Amorebieta - Burgos	0:1 ✺
26.11.23	Elche - Amorebieta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TLWLL
- AD Alcorcón
Spanish LaLiga2
17.12.23	Alcorcón - Eibar	1:0 ✺
11.12.23	Tenerife - Alcorcón	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.12.23	Alcorcón - Cartagena	0:1 penalties ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
03.12.23	Alcorcón - Elche	0:2 ✺
26.11.23	Espanyol - Alcorcón	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
20.03.22	Amorebieta - Alcorcón	0:0
07.11.21	Alcorcón - Amorebieta	2:2

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