Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 27

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Guimaraes L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	América Mineiro		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.85	3	Watch
	2.42	2.88	3.05
	2.56	2.95	3.24
	2.46	3.05	3.07	Watch
	2.3	3	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.36)	2.95 ↓ (3.1)	3.1 ↓ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
38.3%

Draw
31.7%

Coritiba
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

30.4%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

31.5%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

América Mineiro - Coritiba Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Coritiba will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gustavo (G) 18. Julio Cesar 45. Ricardo Silva (C) 3. Lucao 29. Paulinho 17. Stenio 15. Kaua Diniz 8. Felipe Amaral 5. Elizari F. 39. Arthur Sousa 9. Willian Bigode	1. Pedro Morisco (G) 73. Zeca 3. Maicon 77. Iury Castilho 16. Joao Almeida 70. Wallisson 11. Lucas Ronier 36. Vini Paulista 19. Gomez S. (C) 55. Jacy 9. Gustavo Coutinho
Substitutes
20. Aloisio 27. Cassio Meneses (G) 2. Emerson Santos 96. Labandeira F. 7. Miguelito 42. Miqueias 10. Ortiz C. 4. Rafa Barcelos 99. Rafa Silva 69. Thauan 33. Yago Santos 40. Yago Souza	67. Benassi (G) 26. Bruno Melo 49. Dellatorre 27. de Pena C. 37. Everaldo 22. Felipe Guimaraes 87. Gabriel Leite (G) 5. Geovane 15. Guilherme Aquino 10. Josue 7. Nicolas Careca 23. Tiago Coser
Coaches
Alberto Valentim	Mozart

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Willian Bigode ↓, Miguelito ↑,
46', Elizari F. ↓, Yago Souza ↑,
63', Wallisson ↓, Josue ↑,
63', Iury Castilho ↓, Nicolas Careca ↑,
64', Stenio ↓, Thauan ↑,
68', Arthur Sousa ↓, Rafa Silva ↑,
71', 1 - 0, Miguelito ⚽, Thauan (A),
72', Gustavo Coutinho ↓, Dellatorre ↑,
72', Vini Paulista ↓, de Pena C. ↑,
78', Joao Almeida ↓, Bruno Melo ↑,
82', de Pena C. 🟨,
85', Rafa Silva 🟨,
90', Felipe Amaral ↓, Emerson Santos ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América MG won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

América MG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in América MG: Ale (Knee Injury) Fabinho (Ankle Injury) Guilherme Pato (Injury) Heber (Injury) Jhosefer (Injury) Maguinho (Injury)

There will not play in Coritiba: Alex Silva (Injury) Bruno Melo (Inactive) Clayson (Red Card) Everaldo (Inactive) Filipe Machado (Red Card) Pedro Rangel (Red Card)

There are questionable in América MG: Dalbert (Injury) Marlon (Injury)

There are questionable in Coritiba: Josue (Injury) Rodrigo Rodrigues (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, América MG won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, América MG won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
13.09.25	Paysandu - América Mineiro	0:0 ✺
07.09.25	América Mineiro - Operário Ferroviario	1:1 ✺
02.09.25	América Mineiro - Avaí	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Goiás - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
15.08.25	Amazonas - América Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TTWLT
- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie B
12.09.25	Coritiba - Goiás	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Coritiba - Ferroviária	4:0 ✺
29.08.25	Operário Ferroviario - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Coritiba - Remo	0:0 ✺
14.08.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
19.05.25	Coritiba - América Mineiro	1:0
04.10.24	América Mineiro - Coritiba	2:1
19.06.24	Coritiba - América Mineiro	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
08.11.23	América Mineiro - Coritiba	0:3
08.07.23	Coritiba - América Mineiro	3:1
03.09.22	América Mineiro - Coritiba	2:0
15.05.22	Coritiba - América Mineiro	1:0

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