Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 22

Date: 14 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Referee: Filho A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4, RedeTV!, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.63	3.7	Watch
	2.25	2.7	3.5
	2.35	2.68	3.55
	2.47	2.76	3.71
	2.63	2.48	3.50	Watch
	2.38	2.7	3.6
	2.36	2.82	3.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.28)	2.68 ↓ (2.77)	3.59 ↓ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
38.9%

Draw
34.9%

Coritiba
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

33.9%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

33%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	44.4%	11.1%

Grêmio Novorizontino - Coritiba Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Coritiba will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Novorizontino: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Coritiba (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Coritiba (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 1 - 25%). Coritiba (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Airton (G) 40. Rai Ramos 77. Mayk 4. Patrick 37. Cesar Martins 26. Dantas 25. Romulo 5. Jean Irmer (C) 47. Fabio Matheus 90. Caio Dantas 30. Waguininho	1. Pedro Morisco (G) 16. Joao Almeida 8. Filipe Machado 19. Gomez S. (C) 3. Maicon 23. Tiago Coser 25. Clayson 55. Jacy 11. Lucas Ronier 10. Josue 49. Dellatorre
Substitutes
17. Bruno Jose 93. Jordi (G) 19. Leo Tocantins 9. Lucca 6. Luis Oyama 10. Matheus Frizzo 88. Patrick Brey 3. Rafael Donato 11. Robson 2. Rodrigo Soares 8. Willian Farias	27. de Pena C. 37. Everaldo 22. Felipe Guimaraes 87. Gabriel Leite (G) 5. Geovane 15. Guilherme Aquino 9. Gustavo Coutinho 77. Iury Castilho 7. Nicolas Careca 12. Pedro Rangel (G) 36. Vini Paulista 70. Wallisson
Coaches
Umberto Louzer	Mozart

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Lucas Ronier ⚽,
42+2', Gabriel Leite 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Jean Irmer ↓, Bruno Jose ↑,
51', Romulo 🟨,
51', Lucas Ronier 🟨,
52', Dellatorre 🟨,
57', Patrick 🟨,
60', Patrick ↓, Luis Oyama ↑,
60', Waguininho ↓, Matheus Frizzo ↑,
60', Dellatorre ↓, Gustavo Coutinho ↑,
61', Clayson ↓, Iury Castilho ↑,
62', Luis Oyama 🟨,
66', Josue ↓, de Pena C. ↑,
66', Filipe Machado ↓, Felipe Guimaraes ↑,
70', Matheus Frizzo 🟨,
73', Romulo ↓, Robson ↑,
73', Mayk ↓, Leo Tocantins ↑,
73', Tiago Coser ↓, Guilherme Aquino ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Matheus Frizzo ⚽, Rai Ramos (A),
83', Bruno Jose 🟨,
88', 1 - 2, Lucas Ronier ⚽, de Pena C. (A),
90+6', Iury Castilho 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Novorizontino will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Marlon (Inactive) Renato Palm (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Inactive)

There will not play in Coritiba: Jacy (Yellow Cards) Zeca (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Nathan Fogaca (Inactive)

There are questionable in Coritiba: Alex Silva (Injury) Rodrigo Moledo (Knock)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Novorizontino won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
09.08.25	Volta Redonda - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
03.08.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	CRB Maceio - Grêmio Novorizontino	4:0 ✺
23.07.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Goiás	1:0 ✺
17.07.25	Remo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TTLWT
- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie B
08.08.25	Coritiba - Chapecoense	0:0 ✺
31.07.25	Vila Nova - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
27.07.25	Coritiba - Amazonas	1:1 ✺
22.07.25	Athletic Club - Coritiba	1:1 ✺
19.07.25	Coritiba - Paysandu	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
16.04.25	Coritiba - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0
08.09.24	Coritiba - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2
17.05.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Coritiba	0:0

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