Match Info

Serie D - Round 1

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena das Dunas (Natal)


	América RN		Sousa

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.5	7.1
	1.5	3.42	7.7
	1.49	3.48	7.73
	1.44	3.4	7
	1.56	3.95	5.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.47)	3.55 ↑ (3.53)	7.05 ↓ (7.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América RN
61.3%

Draw
25.7%

Sousa
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62%

25.9%

12.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.4%

24.9%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América RN has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Sousa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América RN than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sousa than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

América RN - Sousa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Lucas Rodrigues ⚽,
36', 2 - 0, Alisson Taddei ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América RN won 3.

América RN is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sousa is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, América RN is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, América RN won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 13:4. (average 1.6:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, América RN won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:2. (average 2.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América RN
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
30.03.26	Jacuipense - América RN	0:0 ✺
25.03.26	América RN - Maranhão	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Potiguar
21.03.26	ABC - América RN	1:2 penalties ✺
18.03.26	América RN - ABC	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	América RN - Potiguar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWWTT
- Sousa
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.03.26	Piauí - Sousa	1:0 ✺
26.03.26	Sousa - Confiança	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
21.03.26	Botafogo PB - Sousa	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Sousa - Botafogo PB	1:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.26	Sousa - CRB Maceio	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
11.06.25	Sousa - América RN	1:0
01.06.25	América RN - Sousa	2:0
27.06.24	América RN - Sousa	1:0
26.05.24	Sousa - América RN	0:0
16.07.22	Sousa - América RN	1:2
17.04.22	América RN - Sousa	2:1
24.07.21	Sousa - América RN	0:2

América RN - Sousa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide