Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday

Location: City Ground (Nottingham)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Nottingham Forest		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.33	5.25
	1.5	4.5	6
	1.62	4.5	5
	1.59	4.51	5.54
	1.62	4.47	5.25
	1.57	4	5
	1.61	4.51	5.77
	2	3.4	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (2.04)	4.28 ↑ (3.6)	5.2 ↑ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nottingham Forest
59%

Draw
22.5%

Fenerbahçe
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

26.7%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

28.3%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nottingham Forest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nottingham Forest's performance.

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fenerbahçe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nottingham Forest that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fenerbahçe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.3%	9.8%	5.9%

Nottingham Forest - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Nottingham (1.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Fenerbahçe (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Fenerbahçe (2.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Fenerbahçe (3.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Nottingham Forest will win (43 of 51 users predict this - 84.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.33% – 94.29%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nottingham Forest will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Nottingham (votes: 18 - 78.3%). Fenerbahçe (votes: 4 - 17.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Ortega S. (G) 21. Hutchinson O. 23. Cunha 5. Murillo 4. Morato 3. Williams N. 16. Dominguez N. 22. Yates R. (C) 8. Anderson E. 24. McAtee J. 20. Lucca L.	13. Cetin T. (G) 18. Muldur M. 6. Guendouzi M. 14. Demir Y. E. 3. Brown A. 70. Aydin O. 5. Yuksek I. (C) 17. Kante N. 45. Nene D. 26. Cherif S. 9. Akturkoglu K.
Substitutes
44. Abbott Z. 34. Aina O. 29. Bakwa D. 10. Gibbs-White M. 18. Gunn A. (G) 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 19. Igor Jesus 31. Milenkovic N. 14. Ndoye D. 6. Sangare I. 67. Willows K. (G)	21. Asensio M. 39. Biterge E. (G) 92. Ceylan H. (G) 54. Ekici A. 22. Mercan L. 27. Semedo N. 67. Uregen K.
Coaches
Pereira V.	Tedesco D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Akturkoglu K. ⚽, Cherif S. (A),
40', Lucca L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Nene D. ↓, Semedo N. ↑,
46', McAtee J. ↓, Hudson-Odoi C. ↑,
46', Murillo ↓, Aina O. ↑,
46', Lucca L. ↓, Igor Jesus ↑,
46', Yates R. ↓, Sangare I. ↑,
48', 0 - 2, Akturkoglu K. (Penalty Awarded),
63', Aydin O. ↓, Asensio M. ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Hudson-Odoi C. ⚽, Aina O. (A),
76', Brown A. ↓, Mercan L. ↑,
76', Cherif S. ↓, Ekici A. ↑,
84', Dominguez N. ↓, Gibbs-White M. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 3-0. Second leg.

Nottingham has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fenerbahçe is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fenerbahçe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Fenerbahçe has had a series of home games.

In this match, Nottingham is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Nottingham: Awoniyi T. (Inactive) Boly W. (Knee Injury) John Victor (Knee Injury) Netz L. (Inactive) Wood Ch. (Knee Injury) da Silva Moreira E. (Inactive)

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Alvarez E. (Ankle Injury) Ederson (Muscle Injury) Fall A. (Inactive) Fred (Yellow Cards) Gunok M. (Inactive) Mor E. (Inactive) Musaba A. (Inactive) Oosterwolde J. (Yellow Cards) Skriniar M. (Groin Injury) Soyuncu C. (Muscle Injury) Talisca (Muscle Injury) Yandas M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Savona N. (Knee Injury) Sels M. (Groin Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nottingham won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
22.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Nottingham Forest	0:3 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Wolverhampton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
06.02.26	Leeds United - Nottingham Forest	3:1 ✺
01.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Crystal Palace	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWTLT
- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
23.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Kasımpaşa	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Nottingham Forest	0:3 ✺
Turkish Super League
14.02.26	Trabzonspor - Fenerbahçe	2:3 ✺
09.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Gençlerbirliği	3:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
05.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Erzurumspor	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Nottingham Forest	0:3

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