Match Info

Turkish Cup - Round 4

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Corendon Airlines Park (Antalya)

Referee: Taskinsoy A. B. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	A Spor
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
Turkey	A Haber, A Spor


	Antalyaspor		Samsunspor

	1	X	2
	11	4.75	1.27
	3.6	3.5	1.83
	10.49	5.08	1.28	Watch
	9.37	5.33	1.28
	6.37	2.90	1.76	Watch
	8.5	5	1.25
	9.95	5.2	1.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.47 ↑ (3.4)	4.54 ↑ (3.5)	1.42 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Antalyaspor
11.3%

Draw
21.2%

Samsunspor
67.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.3%

25.5%

48.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

24.7%

49.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Antalyaspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Antalyaspor's form might have worsened.

Samsunspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Samsunspor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Antalyaspor than the current prediction. (+14.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Antalyaspor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (-17.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Samsunspor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	0%	93.3%

Antalyaspor - Samsunspor Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Antalyaspor (6.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Antalyaspor (2.52) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Antalyaspor (2.40) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Antalyaspor (3.57) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Samsunspor will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Samsunspor will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Antalyaspor (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Samsunspor (votes: 4 - 36.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Yigiter A. (G) 27. Tivsiz E. B. 5. Ozturk B. (C) 14. Dzhikiya G. 2. Karakoc S. 17. Yesilyurt E. 20. Ilcin H. 10. Omur A. 88. Saric D. 24. Gueye B. 77. Boli Y.	1. Kocuk O. (G) 23. Albak E. 37. Satka L. (C) 15. Diabbate A. B. 28. Gonul S. 29. Makoumbou A. 20. Kayan Y. 5. Yuksel C. 55. Cift Y. E. 7. Tavsan E. 19. Ndiaye C.
Substitutes
96. Arican K. (G) 7. Balci B. 11. Ballet S. 23. Ceesay J. 6. Dikmen S. 90. Kayaarasi K. 15. Ozkul M. 26. Storm N. 33. Topdemir B. 4. Turkmen H.	70. Coulibaly T. 73. Degirmenci E. 71. Egribayat I. (G) 21. Holse C. 9. Marius 2. Mendes J. 17. Tomasson L. 48. Toruz E. B. (G) 4. Van Drongelen R.
Coaches
Ugurlu S.	Fink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Gueye B. 🟨,
45+5', Dzhikiya G. 🟨,
45+6', Ndiaye C. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Saric D. ↓, Ceesay J. ↑,
49', Tavsan E. 🟨,
59', 0 - 1, Ndiaye C. ⚽, Gonul S. (A),
61', Gueye B. ↓, Storm N. ↑,
61', Boli Y. ↓, Kayaarasi K. ↑,
62', Karakoc S. 🟨,
67', Diabbate A. B. ↓, Van Drongelen R. ↑,
67', Tavsan E. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
67', Albak E. ↓, Marius ↑,
67', Ndiaye C. ↓, Holse C. ↑,
71', Yesilyurt E. ↓, Ballet S. ↑,
77', Ozturk B. 🟨,
84', Tivsiz E. B. ↓, Ozkul M. ↑,
85', Kayan Y. ↓, Tomasson L. ↑,
89', 0 - 2, Marius ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Turkish Cup (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Antalyaspor won 3.

Recent form of Antalyaspor has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Samsunspor has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Samsunspor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Samsunspor is the obvious favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Antalyaspor won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Antalyaspor won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:5. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Antalyaspor
Turkish Super League
01.03.26	Antalyaspor - Fenerbahçe	2:2 ✺
22.02.26	Kayserispor - Antalyaspor	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Antalyaspor - Samsunspor	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Antalyaspor	1:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
03.02.26	Igdirspor - Antalyaspor	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 TLWLL
- Samsunspor
Turkish Super League
01.03.26	Samsunspor - Gaziantep	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Samsunspor - Shkendija Tetovo	4:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
22.02.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Samsunspor	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Shkendija Tetovo - Samsunspor	0:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
13.02.26	Antalyaspor - Samsunspor	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
13.02.26	Antalyaspor - Samsunspor	3:1
13.09.25	Samsunspor - Antalyaspor	1:2
05.04.25	Antalyaspor - Samsunspor	2:1
04.11.24	Samsunspor - Antalyaspor	2:0
12.02.24	Samsunspor - Antalyaspor	2:0
23.09.23	Antalyaspor - Samsunspor	2:0
Turkish First League
05.06.15	Samsunspor - Antalyaspor	2:3 penalties

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