Match Info

Super Lig - Round 22

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Papara Park (Trabzon)

Referee: Meler H. U. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Trabzonspor		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.4	3.54	2.01	Watch
	3.5	3.57	2.13
	3.54	3.63	2.02
	3.3	3.3	2.05
	3.69	3.51	2.1	Watch
	3.4	3.5	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↓ (4.59)	3.49 ↓ (4.06)	2.05 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trabzonspor
27.2%

Draw
26.9%

Fenerbahçe
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.5%

23.2%

56.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

20.8%

50.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trabzonspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Trabzonspor's performance.

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fenerbahçe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trabzonspor than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.4%	0%	70.6%

Trabzonspor - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Trabzonspor will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fenerbahçe: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Trabzonspor (votes: 2 - 40%). Fenerbahçe (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Onana A. (G) 20. Pina W. 27. Nwaiwu C. 44. Batagov A. 14. Lovik M. 42. Inao Oulai C. 26. Jabol-Folcarelli T. 99. Felipe Augusto 10. Muci E. 19. Eskihellac M. 30. Onuachu P. (C)	31. Ederson (G) 27. Semedo N. 37. Skriniar M. 24. Oosterwolde J. 18. Muldur M. 5. Yuksek I. 6. Guendouzi M. 17. Kante N. 21. Asensio M. 94. Talisca 9. Akturkoglu K.
Substitutes
80. Baskan B. 8. Bouchouari B. 25. Cevikkan O. (G) 74. Malkocoglu S. 18. Nayir U. 9. Nwakaeme A. 15. Savic S. 11. Tufan O. 88. Yildirim A. (G) 5. Yokuslu O.	70. Aydin O. 26. Cherif S. 14. Demir Y. E. 7. Fred 34. Gunok M. (G) 22. Mercan L. 20. Musaba A. 45. Nene D. 4. Soyuncu C. 67. Uregen K.
Coaches
Tekke F.	Tedesco D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
6', 1 - 0, Muci E. ⚽, Nwaiwu C. (A),
15', 1 - 1, Talisca ⚽, Yuksek I. (A),
34', 1 - 2, Akturkoglu K. ⚽, Asensio M. (A),
36', Talisca 🟨,
39', Felipe Augusto 🟨,
43', 2 - 2, Onuachu P. ⚽, Lovik M. (A),
44', Onana A. 🟨,
44', Guendouzi M. 🟨,
45', Lovik M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', 2 - 3, Asensio M. ⚽, Akturkoglu K. (A),
51', Inao Oulai C. 🟨,
63', Talisca ↓, Cherif S. ↑,
64', Felipe Augusto ↓, Nayir U. ↑,
66', Muldur M. 🟨,
72', Kante N. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
72', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Musaba A. ↑,
75', Lovik M. ↓, Nwakaeme A. ↑,
81', Yuksek I. ↓, Demir Y. E. ↑,
85', Ederson 🟨,
89', Pina W. ↓, Yokuslu O. ↑,
89', Inao Oulai C. ↓, Savic S. ↑,
90+4', Semedo N. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Trabzonspor won 1.

Trabzonspor is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fenerbahçe is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fenerbahçe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Fenerbahçe will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Trabzonspor: Baniya R. (Shin Injury) Savic S. (Injury) Visca E. (Foot Injury) Zubkov O. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Brown A. (Injury) Mercan L. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Trabzonspor won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 31:32. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Trabzonspor won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.8:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fenerbahce	7	4	1	2	19:6	13	13
4	Trabzonspor	7	4	1	2	16:5	11	13

Last Results with these Odds

Fenerbahçe - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 56.32%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Trabzonspor
Turkish Super League
07.02.26	Samsunspor - Trabzonspor	0:3 ✺
Turkish Cup
03.02.26	Trabzonspor - Fethiyespor	3:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
30.01.26	Antalyaspor - Trabzonspor	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	Trabzonspor - Kasımpaşa	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Kocaelispor - Trabzonspor	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWTWW
- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
09.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Gençlerbirliği	3:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
05.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Erzurumspor	3:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
02.02.26	Kocaelispor - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	FCSB - Fenerbahçe	1:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
25.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Göztepe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
14.09.25	Fenerbahçe - Trabzonspor	1:0
06.04.25	Fenerbahçe - Trabzonspor	4:1
03.11.24	Trabzonspor - Fenerbahçe	2:3
17.03.24	Trabzonspor - Fenerbahçe	2:3
04.11.23	Fenerbahçe - Trabzonspor	2:3
18.05.23	Fenerbahçe - Trabzonspor	3:1
24.12.22	Trabzonspor - Fenerbahçe	2:0

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