Match Info

Date: 27 May 2022, Friday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Hermanos Ghersi Paez (Maracay)


	Aragua		Portuguesa Acarígua

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.95	2.85	2.35	Watch
	2.85	2.7	2.48
	3.1	2.5	2.6
	2.98	2.4	2.47
	3.25	2.7	2.35
	3.02	3.05	2.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↑ (2.42)	2.7 ↓ (2.8)	2.45 ↓ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aragua
29.8%

Draw
33.4%

Portuguesa Acarígua
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

32.6%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

31.8%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aragua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aragua's form might have worsened.

Portuguesa Acarígua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Portuguesa Acarígua's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aragua than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aragua, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portuguesa Acarígua than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Portuguesa Acarígua, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	58.8%	23.5%

Aragua - Portuguesa Acarígua Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Aragua will win (votes: 6 - 17.6%). Portuguesa will win (votes: 8 - 23.5%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 58.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 42.3% – 75.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Copa Sudamericana ~ Play Offs) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Copa Sudamericana ~ Play Offs)).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Aragua could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Aragua won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Aragua won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aragua FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
22.05.22	Metropolitanos - Aragua	1:1 ✺
12.05.22	Aragua - Universidad Central	1:0 ✺
06.05.22	Monagas - Aragua	3:1 ✺
28.04.22	Aragua - Deportivo Lara	1:1 ✺
21.04.22	Deportivo La Guaira - Aragua	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TWLTT
- Portuguesa Acarígua
Venezuelan Primera Division
19.05.22	Portuguesa Acarígua - Hermanos Colmenares	1:1 ✺
13.05.22	Deportivo Táchira - Portuguesa Acarígua	2:2 ✺
05.05.22	Zamora - Portuguesa Acarígua	0:0 ✺
01.05.22	Portuguesa Acarígua - Metropolitanos	0:0 ✺
21.04.22	Carabobo - Portuguesa Acarígua	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Venezuelan Primera Division
18.11.21	Aragua - Portuguesa Acarígua	1:1
30.10.21	Portuguesa Acarígua - Aragua	1:1

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