Match Info

Date: 22 May 2022, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de la UCV (Caracas)


	Metropolitanos		Aragua

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	2.87	3.9
	1.9	2.95	3.75
	2.08	2.9	3.55
	1.91	3	3.92
	1.95	2.88	4.2
	1.96	3.13	4.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.75)	2.96 ↓ (3.3)	3.92 ↓ (4.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metropolitanos
46.2%

Draw
30.6%

Aragua
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

27.7%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

26.8%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metropolitanos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Metropolitanos's form might have worsened.

Aragua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metropolitanos than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Metropolitanos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aragua than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	18.2%	18.2%

Metropolitanos - Aragua Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Metropolitanos will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Aragua will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Metropolitanos: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Copa Libertadores ~ Play Offs) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Copa Sudamericana ~ Play Offs)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Metropolitanos won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Metropolitanos could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Metropolitanos will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Metropolitanos won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 13-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Metropolitanos won 0 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Metropolitanos FC
Copa Sudamericana
19.05.22	Metropolitanos - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:2 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
14.05.22	Hermanos Colmenares - Metropolitanos	1:2 ✺
07.05.22	Metropolitanos - Deportivo Táchira	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.05.22	Metropolitanos - Montevideo Wanderers	0:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
01.05.22	Portuguesa Acarígua - Metropolitanos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWTLT
- Aragua FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
12.05.22	Aragua - Universidad Central	1:0 ✺
06.05.22	Monagas - Aragua	3:1 ✺
28.04.22	Aragua - Deportivo Lara	1:1 ✺
21.04.22	Deportivo La Guaira - Aragua	3:3 ✺
15.04.22	Aragua - Carabobo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Venezuelan Primera Division
04.12.21	Metropolitanos - Aragua	2:2
13.11.21	Aragua - Metropolitanos	0:2
19.11.20	Aragua - Metropolitanos	0:1
25.10.20	Metropolitanos - Aragua	2:2
31.01.20	Metropolitanos - Aragua	1:3
10.11.19	Metropolitanos - Aragua	1:1
19.05.19	Aragua - Metropolitanos	1:0

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