Match Info

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 - Relegation - Final

Date: 11 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Tsentraluri Stadioni (Dusheti)


	Aragvi Dusheti		Lokomotivi Tbilisi

	1	X	2
	2.16	3.25	2.62
	2.3	3.32	2.8	Watch
	2.38	3	2.7
	2.32	3.22	2.69
	2.28	3.14	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.39)	3.19 ↓ (3.23)	2.69 ↓ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aragvi Dusheti
38.9%

Draw
28%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

28.3%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

27.4%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aragvi Dusheti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Lokomotivi Tbilisi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aragvi Dusheti than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lokomotivi Tbilisi than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Aragvi Dusheti - Lokomotivi Tbilisi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chikashua G. (G) 23. Meliava K. 3. Adamadze G. 14. Zaridze I. 22. Javashvili O. 19. Sadikov E. 17. Janelidze G. (C) 30. Feli M. 10. Lukava G. 18. Tepnadze A. 7. Gabisonia D.	1. Nanava L. (G) 16. Shashiashvili S. 4. Bukia D. 34. Gogoli D. 22. Khositashvili V. 11. Kalandadze L. 6. Chileshe F. 38. Assaye D. 10. Kekelidze L. (C) 14. Amoako D. 19. Kokhreidze L.
Substitutes
4. Abuladze A. 21. Balarjishvili G. 11. Bregvadze T. 24. Chigoevi D. 40. Chitaishvili M. 20. Khabeishvili Z. 12. Kutateladze G. (G) 28. Taivo A. 9. Tutashvili N.	32. Gogatishvili G. 15. Gogokhia N. 24. Karimov M. 12. Khelashvili L. (G) 29. Melashvili D. 13. Metreveli L. 3. Molashvili T. 20. Todua G. 37. Vibliani A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Lukava G. (Penalty Awarded),
24', Kalandadze L. 🟨,
24', Nanava L. 🟨,
34', 1 - 1, Amoako D. ⚽, Kalandadze L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
57', Gabisonia D. ↓, Tutashvili N. ↑,
57', Javashvili O. ↓, Bregvadze T. ↑,
64', Shashiashvili S. ↓, Gogatishvili G. ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Kekelidze L. (Penalty Awarded),
74', Janelidze G. ↓, Chitaishvili M. ↑,
81', Chitaishvili M. 🟨,
81', Amoako D. ↓, Todua G. ↑,
83', Gogoli D. 🟨,
84', 2 - 2, Lukava G. ⚽,
86', Feli M. 🟨,
89', Kekelidze L. ↓, Vibliani A. ↑,
90', 2 - 3, Vibliani A. ⚽, Bukia D. (A),

Preview

1st leg.

Aragvi is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lokomotivi is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lokomotivi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Aragvi won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Aragvi won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Lokomotivi Tbilisi - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 33.35%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aragvi Dusheti
Georgian Liga 3
28.11.25	Didube - Aragvi Dusheti	0:3 ✺
13.11.25	Borjomi - Aragvi Dusheti	0:1 ✺
07.11.25	Aragvi Dusheti - Tbilisi 2025	1:2 ✺
30.10.25	Gardabani - Aragvi Dusheti	2:5 ✺
24.10.25	Aragvi Dusheti - Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLWW
- Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Georgian Erovnuli Liga 2
25.11.25	Iberia 1999 2 - Lokomotivi Tbilisi	2:1 ✺
21.11.25	Lokomotivi Tbilisi - Sioni Bolnisi	3:4 ✺
08.11.25	Rustavi - Lokomotivi Tbilisi	5:1 ✺
03.11.25	Lokomotivi Tbilisi - Samtredia	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Merani Martvili - Lokomotivi Tbilisi	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Georgian Erovnuli Liga 2
30.11.24	Lokomotivi Tbilisi - Aragvi Dusheti	1:0
26.09.24	Aragvi Dusheti - Lokomotivi Tbilisi	1:1
31.07.24	Lokomotivi Tbilisi - Aragvi Dusheti	2:1
22.04.24	Aragvi Dusheti - Lokomotivi Tbilisi	3:1

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