Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Shamakhi City Stadium (Shamakhi) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ahmadov A. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Azerbaijan	15:00	CBC Sport


	Araz Naxçıvan		Gabala

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.10	2.50
	2.52	3.1	2.52	Watch
	2.74	3.25	2.75
	2.56	3.28	2.56	Watch
	2.7	2.8	2.7
	2.64	3.21	2.64	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.28)	3.12 ↓ (3.24)	2.61 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Araz Naxçıvan
35.3%

Draw
29.5%

Gabala
35.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.3%

27.6%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

27.7%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Araz Naxçıvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Gabala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Araz Naxçıvan than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Araz Naxçıvan - Gabala Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Ahmadli T. (G) 8. Ahmadzada M. 6. Andrade P. (C) 10. Boli C. 12. Bruno Franco 5. Dumancic L. 23. Fernandez A. 36. Kane M. 27. Letic B. 11. Mara M. 2. Rzayev A.	1. Agayev S. (C) 27. Ahmadov E. 24. Akinade I. 16. Amoah I. 4. Camalov E. 8. Cekici E. 3. Edson Eduardo 12. Mabea K. 23. Raphael Utzig 10. Shahniyarov S. 6. Sierra J.
Substitutes
13. Alizada Q. 1. Augusto A. (G) 26. Buludov O. 22. Hasanov R. 14. Isgandarov U. 7. Muradov R. 29. Nuriyev C. 19. Sudi A.	13. Aliyev N. 7. Bruno Silva 74. Damadayev S. 94. Hushanov H. (G) 22. Iskandarov F. 11. Mammadov A. 5. Monzango N. 66. Rashidov N. 9. Rossi K. 21. Shakarkhanov Z. 80. Ubochioma M.
Coaches
Maksimov Y.	Bekjiri J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Akinade I. ⚽,
35', Edson Eduardo 🟨,
36', 1 - 1, Mara M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Mara M. 🟨,
48', 1 - 2, Amoah I. ⚽,
60', Mara M. ↓, Isgandarov U. ↑,
69', Boli C. ↓, Buludov O. ↑,
87', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 12th in the Relegation - I Liqa and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Araz won 1.

Araz is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Gabala has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Araz has recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:18 (averaging 1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Araz against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 6:4 goals (averaging 1.2:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Gabala	9	2	1	6	5:16	-11	7
12	Araz	9	0	2	7	7:19	-12	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Araz Naxçıvan PFK
Azerbaijan Premier League
16.10.26	Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan	2:1 ✺
09.10.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Kapaz	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Shamakhi - Araz Naxçıvan	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Turan Tovuz	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Araz Naxçıvan	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLLTL
- FK Gabala
Azerbaijan Premier League
17.10.26	Gabala - Sabah	0:4 ✺
10.10.26	Sumgayit - Gabala	4:1 ✺
18.09.26	Gabala - Neftchi Baku	0:3 ✺
12.09.26	Kapaz - Gabala	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Gabala - İmişli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
25.04.26	Gabala - Araz Naxçıvan	1:1
30.11.25	Gabala - Araz Naxçıvan	2:1
30.08.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Gabala	2:1
19.05.24	Gabala - Araz Naxçıvan	2:0
16.03.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Gabala	1:1
Azerbaijan Cup
09.02.24	Gabala - Araz Naxçıvan	2:0
31.01.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Gabala	1:1

Araz Naxçıvan - Gabala