Match Info

Premier League - Round 18

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Liv Bona Dea Arena (Baku)

Referee: Jabarov R. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Araz Naxçıvan		Neftchi Baku

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.05	2.08	Watch
	3.46	3.32	2.09
	3.02	3.19	2.26	Watch
	3.25	3	2.1
	3.33	3.33	2.14
	3.4	3.14	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (2.44)	3.17 ↑ (3.1)	2.11 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Araz Naxçıvan
27.8%

Draw
28.8%

Neftchi Baku
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

29.7%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

28.9%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Araz Naxçıvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Araz Naxçıvan's form might have worsened.

Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Neftchi Baku's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Araz Naxçıvan than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Araz Naxçıvan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Neftchi Baku, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	11.1%	55.6%

Araz Naxçıvan - Neftchi Baku Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Araz will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Neftchi will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Neftchi: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Neftchi (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Avram C. (G) 34. Abbasov U. (C) 24. Ahmadzada M. 5. Alxasov 6. Andrade P. 70. Boli C. 77. Bruno Franco 8. Diniyev C. 7. Keyta H. 11. Simakala B. 29. Wanderson	13. Piric K. (G) 15. Badalov E. 5. Igor Ribeiro 8. Mahmudov E. (C) 47. Mammadov M. 18. Mathew I. 77. Sacko F. 9. Sambou B. 24. Seck M. 70. Shtogrin A. 10. Vargas F.
Substitutes
94. Ahmadli T. (G) 26. Buludov O. 33. Cafarov E. 19. Cohen B. 14. Iskandarov U. 4. Mammadov R. 16. Ramon Machado 23. Rodrigues N. 10. Santos F.	45. Aboubakar V. 1. Balayev E. (G) 4. Camalov E. 27. Costin C. 28. Curci A. 6. D'Almeida S. 81. Hasanov M. (G) 17. Khachayev M. 14. Kuc E. 22. Ortiz L. 7. Safarov E. 19. Salyanskiy A.
Coaches
Demchenko A.	Vernidub Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Igor Ribeiro ⚽, Mahmudov E. (A),
13', Bruno Franco 🟨,
15', Vargas F. 🟨,
40', 0 - 2, Sambou B. ⚽, Igor Ribeiro (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Vargas F. ↓, Kuc E. ↑,
62', Boli C. ↓, Santos F. ↑,
65', Mammadov M. ↓, Ortiz L. ↑,
65', Sambou B. ↓, Aboubakar V. ↑,
70', Abbasov U. ↓, Buludov O. ↑,
72', Igor Ribeiro 🟨,
77', Shtogrin A. ↓, Curci A. ↑,
83', Mathew I. ↓, D'Almeida S. ↑,
84', 0 - 3, Curci A. ⚽,
85', Keyta H. ↓, Iskandarov U. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 4, Aboubakar V. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Araz won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Neftchi will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Araz won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:9. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Araz won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 1.6:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Neftci Baku	6	5	0	1	18:5	13	15
12	Araz	6	0	2	4	5:13	-8	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Araz Naxçıvan PFK
Azerbaijan Premier League
23.01.26	İmişli - Araz Naxçıvan	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Shamakhi	2:0 ✺
14.12.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Araz Naxçıvan	5:1 ✺
09.12.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Kapaz	2:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
04.12.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Kapaz	0:1 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWLWL
- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
23.01.26	Neftchi Baku - Zira	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Karvan - Neftchi Baku	1:2 ✺
15.12.25	Neftchi Baku - Sumgayit	2:2 ✺
08.12.25	Sabah - Neftchi Baku	2:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
02.12.25	Zira - Neftchi Baku	1:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
19.10.25	Neftchi Baku - Araz Naxçıvan	2:2
29.03.25	Neftchi Baku - Araz Naxçıvan	1:1
26.01.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Neftchi Baku	2:1
01.11.24	Neftchi Baku - Araz Naxçıvan	0:1
24.08.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Neftchi Baku	1:1
13.04.24	Neftchi Baku - Araz Naxçıvan	3:0
13.02.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Neftchi Baku	1:0

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