Match Info

Premier League - Round 15

Date: 15 December 2025, Monday

Location: Neftci Arena (Baku)

Referee: Jabarov R. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Neftchi Baku		Sumgayit

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.15	3.8	Watch
	1.76	3.52	4.51
	1.74	3.4	4.55	Watch
	1.8	3.2	4.33
	1.88	3.13	4.01	Watch
	1.72	3.33	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.75)	3.29 ↑ (3.2)	4.26 ↓ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neftchi Baku
50.8%

Draw
27.8%

Sumgayit
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

28.1%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

29.8%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neftchi Baku has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Sumgayit has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sumgayit than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	10%	30%

Neftchi Baku - Sumgayit Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Neftchi will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Sumgayit will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Neftchi: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Neftchi (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +0.5 - Sumgayit (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Neftchi (votes: 1 - 25%). Sumgayit (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piric K. (G) 15. Badalov E. 27. Costin C. 11. Faraj I. 5. Igor Ribeiro 8. Mahmudov E. (C) 18. Mathew I. 23. Rezabala J. 9. Sambou B. 24. Seck M. 10. Vargas F.	22. Farzullayev K. (G) 8. Abdullazada S. (C) 7. Ahmadzada R. 11. Jankovic A. 80. Keffel 19. Kehat R. 71. Murata M. 14. Pinto P. 6. Rustamli R. 72. Senhadji R. 23. Vasquez R.
Substitutes
45. Aboubakar V. 1. Balayev E. (G) 93. Cafarov R. (G) 28. Curci A. 17. Khachayev M. 14. Kuc E. 47. Mammadov M. 22. Ortiz L. 77. Sacko F. 19. Salyanskiy A.	66. Aliyev R. 56. Arixov A. (G) 1. Cannatov M. (G) 3. Haqverdi H. 10. Ninkovic N. 37. Orujali N. 75. Orujov N. 9. Ramalingom A. 95. Simon N.
Coaches
Vernidub Y.	Ilic S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', Badalov E. 🟨,
31', Rustamli R. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Faraj I. ⚽,
34', Abdullazada S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Kehat R. ↓, Simon N. ↑,
46', Rustamli R. ↓, Ramalingom A. ↑,
48', Senhadji R. 🟨,
50', 2 - 0, Sambou B. ⚽,
63', Murata M. ↓, Orujov N. ↑,
63', Jankovic A. ↓, Ninkovic N. ↑,
72', Sambou B. ↓, Aboubakar V. ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Simon N. ⚽,
81', 2 - 2, Abdullazada S. ⚽,
82', Costin C. ↓, Sacko F. ↑,
82', Faraj I. ↓, Mammadov M. ↑,
89', Rezabala J. ↓, Curci A. ↑,
90', Senhadji R. ↓, Haqverdi H. ↑,
90+1', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Neftchi won 2.

Neftchi is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Sumgayit is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Neftchi has had a series of away games.

In this match, Neftchi is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Neftchi won 10 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 31:17. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Neftchi won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
08.12.25	Sabah - Neftchi Baku	2:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
02.12.25	Zira - Neftchi Baku	1:0 ET ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
28.11.25	Turan Tovuz - Neftchi Baku	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Neftchi Baku - İmişli	2:3 ✺
09.11.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Neftchi Baku	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLTLL
- Sumgayit FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
09.12.25	Sumgayit - İmişli	1:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
04.12.25	Difai Ağsu - Sumgayit	1:3 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
30.11.25	Shamakhi - Sumgayit	1:2 ✺
21.11.25	Sumgayit - Qarabağ Agdam	2:4 ✺
07.11.25	Gabala - Sumgayit	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
21.09.25	Sumgayit - Neftchi Baku	0:2
28.04.25	Sumgayit - Neftchi Baku	2:2
21.02.25	Neftchi Baku - Sumgayit	1:0
08.12.24	Sumgayit - Neftchi Baku	2:0
28.09.24	Neftchi Baku - Sumgayit	1:1
07.04.24	Neftchi Baku - Sumgayit	1:1
Azerbaijan Cup
09.02.24	Neftchi Baku - Sumgayit	1:1

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