Match Info

Stars League - Round 35

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Franso Hariri Stadium (Arbil)

Where to Watch on TV:


Iraq	Al Iraqiya Sports


	Arbil		Newroz

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.9	5.5
	1.49	3.77	5.26
	1.49	4.17	5.46
	1.5	3.6	5.5
	1.47	4	5.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.47)	3.89 ↓ (4.03)	5.51 ↓ (5.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbil
60.5%

Draw
23.2%

Newroz
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

22.5%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

21.5%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Newroz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arbil than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newroz than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Arbil - Newroz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
66', 0 - 1, Ridha Jalil M. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arbil won 1.

Arbil is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Newroz has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Newroz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Arbil is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Arbil will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Arbil won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Arbil won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Erbil	8	5	2	1	12:3	9	17
4	Newroz	8	4	3	1	13:4	9	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbil
Iraqi Premier League
11.05.26	Najaf - Arbil	1:4 ✺
06.05.26	Arbil - Al-Kahraba	2:2 ✺
02.05.26	Arbil - Al-Karkh	1:0 ✺
27.04.26	Al-Talaba - Arbil	2:3 ✺
23.04.26	Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya - Arbil	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTWWT
- Newroz Sulaymaniyah
Iraqi Premier League
11.05.26	Al-Kahraba - Newroz	2:1 ✺
05.05.26	Newroz - Al-Shorta Baghdad	0:3 ✺
01.05.26	Al-Karma - Newroz	0:1 ✺
27.04.26	Newroz - Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya	1:1 ✺
22.04.26	Al-Talaba - Newroz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
29.10.25	Newroz - Arbil	0:1
14.06.25	Arbil - Newroz	0:1
10.02.25	Newroz - Arbil	2:0
14.07.24	Newroz - Arbil	4:4
12.02.24	Arbil - Newroz	1:1
10.07.23	Newroz - Arbil	2:1
23.06.22	Newroz - Arbil	1:0

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