Match Info

Stars League - Round 32

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Franso Hariri Stadium (Arbil)


	Arbil		Al-Karkh

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.25	3.85
	1.6	3.67	4.61
	1.69	3.47	4.66	Watch
	1.85	3.28	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.84)	3.42 ↑ (3.28)	4.26 ↑ (3.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbil
52.1%

Draw
26.5%

Al-Karkh
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

27.6%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

26.4%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Al-Karkh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbil than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Karkh than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Arbil - Al Karkh Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', 1 - 0, Cabrera M. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arbil won 1.

Arbil is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Al-Karkh has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Arbil is a strong favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Arbil won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Arbil won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Erbil	8	5	2	1	12:3	9	17
15	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	10:14	-4	7

Last Results with these Odds

Arbil - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 49.25%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbil
Iraqi Premier League
27.04.26	Al-Talaba - Arbil	2:3 ✺
23.04.26	Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya - Arbil	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Arbil - Al-Qasim	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Al-Naft - Arbil	0:2 ✺
09.04.26	Arbil - Al Mosul	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WTWWT
- Al-Karkh
Iraqi Premier League
27.04.26	Al-Kahraba - Al-Karkh	1:3 ✺
22.04.26	Al-Karkh - Al-Karma	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Al-Zawraa - Al-Karkh	3:0 ✺
13.04.26	Al-Karkh - Diyala	0:2 ✺
08.04.26	Newroz - Al-Karkh	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
27.01.26	Al-Karkh - Arbil	1:1
29.06.25	Arbil - Al-Karkh	1:3
19.01.25	Al-Karkh - Arbil	2:4
08.05.24	Al-Karkh - Arbil	0:0
28.03.24	Arbil - Al-Karkh	0:0
25.06.23	Arbil - Al-Karkh	0:0
01.02.23	Al-Karkh - Arbil	3:1

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