Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Gayfield Park (Arbroath)


	Arbroath		Airdrieonians

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	4
	1.82	3.3	3.7
	1.88	3.45	3.7
	1.8	3.4	4.45
	1.77	3.6	4.08	Watch
	1.8	3.4	3.7
	1.86	3.42	4.15
	1.78	3.25	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.8)	3.39 ↑ (3.3)	4.07 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbroath
50.5%

Draw
27%

Airdrieonians
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

27.2%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

27.1%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbroath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Airdrieonians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Airdrieonians than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Arbroath - Airdrieonians Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McAdams A. (G) 27. Enem V. 6. Muirhead A. 16. Watson C. 4. Wilkie J. 12. Stewart S. 25. Cochrane H. 15. MacIntyre J. 8. Flynn R. 11. Dow R. 28. Robinson S.	50. Stone H. (G) 14. Devine A. 16. Ross C. 4. McGinty S. 3. Strapp L. 23. Telfer Ch. 6. McMaster D. 8. Gallagher G. 25. Constable S. 11. Henderson E. 17. McGrattan L.
Substitutes
14. Callachan R. 18. Gillie L. 7. Gold D. 2. Lang T. 17. Marshall F. 62. Mebude D. 5. O'Brien T. 21. Pettigrew J. (G) 10. Reilly G.	34. Aird A. 18. Barjonas J. 33. Hastie J. 2. MacDonald D. 12. McArthur C. 24. McKinnon C. 20. Melrose C. (G) 7. Mochrie C. R. 38. Smith J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, McGrattan L. ⚽, Devine A. (A),
32', Enem V. ↓, Marshall F. ↑,
35', 1 - 1, Muirhead A. ⚽,
37', Constable S. ↓, McKinnon C. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', 2 - 1, Robinson S. ⚽, Wilkie J. (A),
59', Muirhead A. ↓, Lang T. ↑,
64', McMaster D. ↓, Mochrie C. R. ↑,
64', Telfer Ch. ↓, Barjonas J. ↑,
73', Devine A. ↓, MacDonald D. ↑,
73', Gallagher G. ↓, Hastie J. ↑,
78', Robinson S. 🟨,
79', 2 - 2, Henderson E. ⚽, Strapp L. (A),
80', Dow R. ↓, Reilly G. ↑,
81', Flynn R. ↓, Callachan R. ↑,
82', Callachan R. 🟨,
90+1', Callachan R. 🟨,
Penalties (3 - 5)
1, Henderson E. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Reilly G. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Barjonas J. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Marshall F. (Penalty Awarded),
3, McGrattan L. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Wilkie J. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Mochrie C. R. (Penalty Awarded),
4, MacIntyre J. (Penalty Awarded),
5, McKinnon C. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arbroath won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Airdrieonians may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Airdrieonians has had a series of home games.

In this match, Arbroath is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arbroath won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 33:28. (average 1.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Arbroath won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:8. (average 2.5:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Airdrieonians ✔	5	4	0	1	18:6	12	12

Last Results with these Odds

Airdrieonians - the odds 3.9 are the expected chance of winning is 23%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbroath
Scottish Football Championship
31.01.26	Queens Park - Arbroath	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	Arbroath - Greenock Morton	1:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
17.01.26	Airdrieonians - Arbroath	4:3 penalties ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
13.01.26	Arbroath - East Fife	3:0 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
10.01.26	Raith Rovers - Arbroath	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LTLWW
- Airdrieonians FC
Scottish Football Championship
31.01.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Airdrieonians	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Airdrieonians - Ross County	0:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
17.01.26	Airdrieonians - Arbroath	4:3 penalties ✺
Scottish Football Championship
10.01.26	Ayr United - Airdrieonians	1:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
06.01.26	Airdrieonians - Montrose	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.7 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Cup
17.01.26	Airdrieonians - Arbroath	4:3 penalties
Scottish Football Championship
27.12.25	Arbroath - Airdrieonians	1:1
25.10.25	Airdrieonians - Arbroath	1:0
30.08.25	Arbroath - Airdrieonians	1:0
02.04.24	Arbroath - Airdrieonians	1:2
16.03.24	Airdrieonians - Arbroath	5:2
11.11.23	Airdrieonians - Arbroath	2:0

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