Match Info

Championship - Round 5

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Gayfield Park (Arbroath)

Referee: Wilson L. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Arbroath FC TV, ParsTV Dunfermline


	Arbroath		Dunfermline Athletic

	1	X	2
	2.70	3.00	2.35
	2.70	3.00	2.35
	2.75	3.15	2.55	Watch
	3.27	3.20	2.53
	2.76	3.07	2.66	Watch
	3.20	2.85	2.45
	2.90	3.22	2.52	Watch
	2.90	3.00	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.7)	3.06 ↓ (3.07)	2.48 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbroath
32.1%

Draw
30.4%

Dunfermline Athletic
37.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

29.8%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

30.2%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbroath has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Dunfermline Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dunfermline Athletic than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Dunfermline will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McAdams A. (G) 16. Watson C. 22. Dewar C. 5. O'Brien T. (C) 26. Mackie S. 15. McGill S. 8. Flynn R. 14. McKenna M. 23. Bonnar J. 11. Dow R. 9. Winter A.	1. Oxborough A. (G) 24. Lobban D. 15. Cleall-Harding S. 6. Abdulai N. 47. Fraser R. (C) 14. Amade A. 33. Cooper J. 19. Oyirwoth A. 26. Tod A. 9. Rudden Z. 99. Adams O.
Substitutes
6. Beadling T. 18. Beattie C. 19. Daly C. 7. Gold D. 3. Hamilton C. 4. Paterson B. 21. Pettigrew J. (G)	22. Bray K. 18. Corbally K. 12. Dibaga M. (G) 25. Donnelly A. 8. Gilmour C. 20. Kane Ch. 11. Kearney S. 16. MacLeod R. 5. Robinson L.
Coaches
Hamilton C.	Lennon N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Amade A. 🟨,
54', 1 - 0, McKenna M. ⚽, O'Brien T. (A),
62', Rudden Z. ↓, Kane Ch. ↑,
62', Amade A. ↓, Gilmour C. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Cooper J. ⚽, Fraser R. (A),
71', McGill S. ↓, Beadling T. ↑,
71', Winter A. ↓, Daly C. ↑,
80', Adams O. 🟨,
81', Bonnar J. ↓, Paterson B. ↑,
82', Adams O. ↓, MacLeod R. ↑,
86', Cooper J. ↓, Bray K. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Premiership (Promotion: Quarter~finals) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arbroath won 2.

Arbroath is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Dunfermline has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arbroath may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arbroath won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:32. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Arbroath won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:21. (average 1.5:1.9).

Outrights of Scottish Football Championship for now

Dunfermline: 8.83% Arbroath: 1.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Dunfermline	7	3	3	1	6:4	2	12
7	Arbroath	9	3	2	4	6:13	-7	11

Last Results with these Odds

Dunfermline Athletic - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 36.44%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbroath
Scottish Football Championship
29.08.26	Arbroath - Livingston	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Greenock Morton - Arbroath	1:2 ✺
08.08.26	Arbroath - Inverness	0:0 ✺
01.08.26	Ayr United - Arbroath	2:0 ✺
Scottish League Cup
25.07.26	Arbroath - Stirling Albion	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWTLW
- Dunfermline Athletic
Scottish Football Championship
28.08.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Raith Rovers	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Livingston - Dunfermline Athletic	2:0 ✺
Scottish League Cup
15.08.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Ross County	1:2 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
08.08.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Inverness - Dunfermline Athletic	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
08.05.26	Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic	0:0
05.05.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Arbroath	1:0
01.05.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Arbroath	0:0
21.02.26	Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic	4:2
06.12.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Arbroath	1:2
13.09.25	Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic	0:5
30.03.24	Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic	2:3

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