Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 14 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Arena Arda (Kardzhali)

Referee: Culina A. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra


	Arda Kardzhali		Kauno Žalgiris

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.5	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.1
	2.12	3.05	3.45	Watch
	2.17	3.08	3.51
	1.07	10.01	27.51	Watch
	2.16	3.1	3.81	Watch
	2	3.3	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.96)	4.11 ↑ (3.1)	6.93 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arda Kardzhali
56.5%

Draw
27.3%

Kauno Žalgiris
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

29.3%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

27.6%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arda Kardzhali has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arda Kardzhali's performance.

Kauno Žalgiris has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kauno Žalgiris might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arda Kardzhali than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arda Kardzhali that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kauno Žalgiris than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kauno Žalgiris could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.3%	17.1%	48.6%

Arda Kardzhali - Kauno Žalgiris Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Arda will win (votes: 12 - 34.3%). Kauno Žalgiris will win (votes: 17 - 48.6%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 17.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kauno Žalgiris: 32% – 65.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Arda (votes: 4 - 25%). Kauno Žalgiris (votes: 10 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gospodinov A. (C) 21. Velev V. 93. Eboa F. 18. Huseynov C. 35. Velkovski D. 4. Idowu D. 80. Kotev L. 10. Kovachev S. 20. Yusein S. 99. Karagaren B. 9. Nikolov G.	55. Svedkauskas T. (G) 21. Bah-Traore H. 3. Tolordava A. 23. Hernandez A. 37. Iyobosa Edokpolor N. 14. Naah D. 10. Sirgedas G. (C) 9. Chogadze T. 7. Benchaib A. 70. Ourega F. 77. Georgijevic D.
Substitutes
26. Akandzha B. 2. Gustavo Cascardo 30. Kazakov I. 45. Mane I. 11. Shinyashiki A. 33. Tilev I. 27. Todev B. 23. Viyachki E. 39. Vutov A. 92. Yusuf M. (G)	8. Armanavicius V. 28. Burdzilauskas E. 2. Burdzilauskas T. 11. Cernych F. 19. Jansonas R. 66. Jurjonas E. 5. Kerkez D. 20. Lekiatas R. 22. Mikelionis D. (G) 35. Miksiunas J. (G) 79. Paulauskas V. 30. Vosylius N.
Coaches
Tunchev A.	Cerniauskas E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Velkovski D. ⚽, Kovachev S. (A),
12', Benchaib A. 🟨,
12', 2 - 0, Kovachev S. ⚽, Karagaren B. (A),
15', Nikolov G. 🟨,
24', Chogadze T. 🟨,
34', Naah D. 🟥,
45+3', Chogadze T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nikolov G. ↓, Tilev I. ↑,
46', Yusein S. ↓, Vutov A. ↑,
46', Sirgedas G. ↓, Armanavicius V. ↑,
46', Tolordava A. ↓, Kerkez D. ↑,
46', Benchaib A. ↓, Cernych F. ↑,
46', Ourega F. ↓, Paulauskas V. ↑,
58', Georgijevic D. 🟨,
62', Iyobosa Edokpolor N. ↓, Jurjonas E. ↑,
65', Velev V. ↓, Gustavo Cascardo ↑,
65', Kovachev S. ↓, Mane I. ↑,
75', Karagaren B. ↓, Kazakov I. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-0. 2nd leg.

Arda is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kauno Žalgiris has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Arda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Arda might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Arda won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arda Kardzhali
Bulgarian Parva Liga
11.08.25	Arda Kardzhali - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Arda Kardzhali	0:1 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
04.08.25	Botev Plovdiv - Arda Kardzhali	0:5 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	HJK - Arda Kardzhali	2:3 penalties ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
27.07.25	Arda Kardzhali - Lokomotiv Sofia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 TWWWT
- FK Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuanian Cup
10.08.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Sūduva Marijampolė	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Arda Kardzhali	0:1 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
04.08.25	Žalgiris - Kauno Žalgiris	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	Valur - Kauno Žalgiris	1:2 ✺
24.07.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Valur	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Arda Kardzhali	0:1

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