Match Info

NIFL Championship - Round 30

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday


	Ards		Ballinamallard United

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.45	3.6
	1.9	3.37	3.53
	1.9	3.59	3.56	Watch
	1.85	3.25	3.5
	1.91	3.38	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.11)	3.41 ↓ (3.68)	3.55 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ards
47.8%

Draw
26.6%

Ballinamallard United
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

25%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

23.6%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ards has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Ballinamallard United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ballinamallard United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ards than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ards that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ballinamallard United than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ballinamallard United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ards - Ballinamallard United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ards won 1.

Ards has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ballinamallard is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ards may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ards will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ards won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 37:24. (average 1.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ards won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.4:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Ballinamallard	10	4	2	4	16:16	0	14
11	Ards	10	3	3	4	12:13	-1	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ards FC
Northern Irish Championship
21.02.26	Queens University Belfast - Ards	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Ards - Harland & Wolff Welders	2:3 ✺
03.02.26	Ards - Newington	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Ards - Institute FC	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Newington - Ards	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TLWTL
- Ballinamallard United
Northern Irish Championship
24.02.26	Warrenpoint Town - Ballinamallard United	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Ballinamallard United - Annagh United	0:0 ✺
17.02.26	Loughgall - Ballinamallard United	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Dundela - Ballinamallard United	1:4 ✺
31.01.26	Ballinamallard United - Institute FC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Championship
31.10.25	Ballinamallard United - Ards	1:0
09.08.25	Ards - Ballinamallard United	3:1
25.01.25	Ballinamallard United - Ards	2:2
07.12.24	Ards - Ballinamallard United	0:1
24.08.24	Ballinamallard United - Ards	2:2
20.04.24	Ballinamallard United - Ards	0:5
13.01.24	Ards - Ballinamallard United	0:1

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