Match Info

NIFL Championship - Round 20

Date: 3 February 2026, Tuesday


	Ards		Newington

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.5	2.32
	2.08	3.38	2.94
	2.12	3.55	2.99	Watch
	2.1	3.2	2.9
	2.1	3.4	3.02
	2.08	3.5	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.7)	3.42 ↓ (3.67)	2.85 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ards
41.5%

Draw
26.6%

Newington
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

24.8%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

25.2%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ards has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ards's performance.

Newington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newington might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ards than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ards that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newington than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newington could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ards - Newington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 10 in the zone NIFL Championship (Relegation Group: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NIFL Championship (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ards won 1.

Ards has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Newington has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Newington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Ards won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:17. (average 1.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Ards won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.5:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Newington	10	6	2	2	24:18	6	20
11	Ards	10	3	3	4	12:13	-1	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ards FC
Northern Irish Championship
24.01.26	Ards - Institute FC	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Newington - Ards	2:0 ✺
Northern Irish Cup
10.01.26	Dungannon Swifts - Ards	3:0 ✺
Northern Irish Championship
30.12.25	Armagh City - Ards	0:8 ✺
26.12.25	Ards - Warrenpoint Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLLWT
- Newington FC
Northern Irish Championship
31.01.26	Harland & Wolff Welders - Newington	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Annagh United - Newington	3:2 ✺
17.01.26	Newington - Ards	2:0 ✺
Northern Irish Cup
13.01.26	Glenavon - Newington	4:2 ET ✺
Northern Irish Championship
30.12.25	Institute FC - Newington	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Championship
17.01.26	Newington - Ards	2:0
04.10.25	Newington - Ards	0:3
22.02.25	Ards - Newington	1:1
02.11.24	Newington - Ards	2:2
13.04.24	Ards - Newington	1:1
27.02.24	Newington - Ards	1:0
02.12.23	Newington - Ards	4:1

Ards - Newington: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide