Match Info

NIFL Championship - Round 12

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Ards		Institute FC

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.30	2.65
	2.10	3.45	2.85
	2.31	3.58	2.50
	2.36	3.58	2.6	Watch
	2.25	3.50	2.45
	2.46	3.46	2.67
	2.28	3.45	2.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.17)	3.47 ↓ (3.52)	2.63 ↓ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ards
39.6%

Draw
26%

Institute FC
34.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.8%

25.8%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

25%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ards has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Institute FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ards than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Institute FC than the current prediction. (-3%)

Ards - Institute FC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10th in the NIFL Championship (Relegation Group: ) and 7th in the Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ards won 1.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Ards holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ards has recorded 4 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:32 (averaging 1.2:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ards against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with 5:13 goals (averaging 0.6:1.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Institute	12	6	2	4	22:17	5	20
10	Ards	13	4	4	5	15:16	-1	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ards FC
Northern Irish Championship
09.10.26	Newington - Ards	0:2 ✺
03.10.26	Ballinamallard United - Ards	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Ards - Strabane Athletic	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Ards - Rathfriland Rangers	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Annagh United - Ards	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTLWL
- Institute FC
Northern Irish Championship
10.10.26	Institute FC - Harland & Wolff Welders	0:0 ✺
03.10.26	Institute FC - Newington	7:0 ✺
26.09.26	Annagh United - Institute FC	5:0 ✺
05.09.26	Rathfriland Rangers - Institute FC	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Institute FC - Newry City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Championship
18.04.26	Institute FC - Ards	3:1
24.01.26	Ards - Institute FC	0:0
25.10.25	Ards - Institute FC	0:3
16.08.25	Institute FC - Ards	2:2
18.03.25	Institute FC - Ards	2:3
16.11.24	Institute FC - Ards	2:4
28.09.24	Ards - Institute FC	0:0

Ards - Institute FC