Match Info

Super League - Round 15

Date: 23 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Kanjuruhan Stadium (Malang)

Where to Watch on TV:


Indonesia	Indosiar, Vidio


	Arema		Madura United

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	3.35	Watch
	1.92	3.63	3.79
	1.89	3.71	3.68	Watch
	2	3.3	3.3
	1.9	3.34	3.63	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.88)	3.45 ↓ (3.63)	3.48 ↓ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arema
47%

Draw
26.6%

Madura United
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

25.6%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

24.1%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Madura United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arema than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Madura United than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Arema - Madura United Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Arema will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Madura United will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Arema (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Lucas Frigeri (G) 12. Marasabessy M. 26. Luiz Gustavo (C) 4. Odivan 96. Iksan M. 25. Matheus Blade 8. Fikri A. 14. Hariono J. 11. Tuharea S. 27. Setiawan D. 10. Valdeci	21. Diky M. (G) 12. Rizki F. 3. Monteiro P. 95. Mendonca 6. Ruxi 17. Sitanggang P. 5. Palic K. 4. Wehrmann J. 11. Lulinha (C) 87. Balotelli 7. Nufiandani A.
Substitutes
29. Alfiansyah A. 15. Arjidan F. 22. Aswin 13. Balinsa S. G. 20. Fachrezi R. 17. Mardiyanto D. 24. Rafli M. 41. Santoso D. 30. Satryo A. (G) 18. Scheunemann B. 72. Setiawan B. 5. Yann Motta	25. Afrisal R. 45. Hidayat T. 36. Ilhamsyah 18. Kemaluddin M. 99. Kusuma A. 24. Muslihuddin T. 44. Nurdiansyah 42. Ramzy F. 68. Rusadi A. 30. Saputra M. (G) 2. Sasongko N.
Coaches
Marquinhos S.	Biasi Parreira C. E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
37', 1 - 0, Iksan M. ⚽, Valdeci (A),
43', 1 - 1, Lulinha ⚽, Nufiandani A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Rizki F. ↓, Sasongko N. ↑,
53', 1 - 2, Lulinha ⚽, Nufiandani A. (A),
61', 2 - 2, Iksan M. ⚽,
66', Marasabessy M. ↓, Setiawan B. ↑,
66', Nufiandani A. ↓, Muslihuddin T. ↑,
66', Balotelli ↓, Kusuma A. ↑,
71', Sitanggang P. ↓, Ramzy F. ↑,
75', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
77', Odivan ↓, Santoso D. ↑,
83', Wehrmann J. ↓, Afrisal R. ↑,
86', Valdeci ↓, Rafli M. ↑,
86', Hariono J. ↓, Balinsa S. G. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arema won 2.

Arema has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Madura United is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arema is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Arema won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:16. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Arema won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 1.2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arema FC
Indonesian Super League
29.11.25	Java United - Arema	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Persebaya Surabaya - Arema	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Arema - Persija Jakarta	1:2 ✺
03.11.25	Semen Padang - Arema	1:2 ✺
26.10.25	Arema - Borneo Samarinda	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TTLWL
- Madura United
Indonesian Super League
30.11.25	Madura United - Persib Bandung	1:4 ✺
22.11.25	Borneo Samarinda - Madura United	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Madura United - Persijap Jepara	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	PSM Makassar - Madura United	1:1 ✺
24.10.25	Madura United - Persija Jakarta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Indonesian Super League
24.04.25	Arema - Madura United	0:1
21.11.24	Madura United - Arema	2:4
Indonesian President Cup
26.07.24	Madura United - Arema	0:5
Indonesian Super League
30.04.24	Madura United - Arema	0:0
28.10.23	Arema - Madura United	1:1
07.04.23	Madura United - Arema	1:1
20.12.22	Arema - Madura United	0:2

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