Match Info
Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 22Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday
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Aretxabaleta |
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Leioa |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
3.05 |
3.3 |
2.05 |
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 |
3.14 |
3.36 |
2.06 |
|
 |
3.17 |
3.42 |
2.09 |
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 |
3.19 |
3.25 |
2.08 |
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 |
3.14 |
3.4 |
2.05 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.14 ↓
(3.28) |
3.35 ↑
(3.02) |
2.07 ↓
(2.18) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
- The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Aretxabaleta
28.9% | Draw
27.1% | Leioa
43.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aretxabaleta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)Leioa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aretxabaleta than the current prediction. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leioa than the current prediction. (-0.4%)Aretxabaleta - Leioa Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 4', 0 - 1, ⚽,
- 35', 0 - 2, ⚽,
- 41', 1 - 2, ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 61', 2 - 2, ⚽,
- 80', 3 - 2, ⚽,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )).Aretxabaleta has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).Leioa is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins โ 4). Leioa could have a small edge in this match.In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aretxabaleta won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 2.3:1.7).Including home match between the teams, Aretxabaleta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 4 | Leioa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12:6 | 6 | 9 |
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| 7 | UD Aretxabaleta | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 8 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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