Match Info

ARGENTINA: Torneo Betano - Round 20

Date: 1 November 2024, Friday

Location: Estadio Diego Armando Maradona (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Zunino S. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Italy	Sportitalia
Russia	Okko Sport
Usa	CBS, Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+, Fanatiz, TyC Sports Internacional


	Argentinos Juniors		Vélez Sársfield

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3.3	3.1	2.25
	3.35	3.05	2.3	Watch
	3.5	3.2	2.35
	3.41	3.13	2.29
	3.41	3.13	2.29	Watch
	3.35	3.05	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (2.85)	3.11 ↑ (2.87)	2.29 ↓ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

Watch this match and Argentinian Liga Profesional with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: TyC Sports

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Current Win Probability

Argentinos Juniors
27.9%

Draw
30.6%

Vélez Sársfield
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

33%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

34.2%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Argentinos Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Argentinos Juniors's form might have worsened.

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vélez Sársfield's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Argentinos Juniors than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Argentinos Juniors, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vélez Sársfield, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Argentinos Juniors - Vélez Sársfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Argentinos Juniors will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Vélez will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vélez: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Rodriguez D. (G) 14. Coronel K. 16. Alvarez F. 2. Ramirez T. 6. Vega R. 30. Mac Allister F. 17. Ferreira C. 25. Gomez L. 21. Oroz N. 9. Romero M. 11. Herrera J.	1. Marchiori T. (G) 4. Garcia J. 2. Mammana E. 31. Gomez V. 5. Elias J. 32. Ordonez C. 26. Bouzat A. 20. Pizzini F. 22. Aquino C. 27. Fernandez T. 9. Braian Romero
Substitutes
32. Cordero N. 19. Galvan J. 36. Gamarra A. 31. Guillen M. 22. Lescano A. 18. Meza F. 27. Molina T. 28. Perello M. 7. Rodriguez S. 23. Santamaria T. 12. Siri Payer G. (G) 29. Viveros E.	47. Bosch B. 45. Bussio F. 28. Carrizo M. 34. Fernandez D. 24. Guidara T. 14. Lagos A. 36. Montoro A. 48. Montoro F. 11. Pellegrini M. 6. Quiros A. 12. Rodriguez R. (G) 19. Roldan L.
Coaches
Zermatten C.	Quinteros G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Mac Allister F. 🟨,
45+1', Coronel K. 🟥,
45+7', Rodriguez D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Oroz N. ↓, Galvan J. ↑,
46', Mac Allister F. ↓, Gamarra A. ↑,
59', Ferreira C. ↓, Viveros E. ↑,
61', Ordonez C. ↓, Montoro A. ↑,
70', Romero M. ↓, Cordero N. ↑,
72', Pizzini F. ↓, Carrizo M. ↑,
72', Garcia J. ↓, Lagos A. ↑,
74', Gomez L. 🟨,
79', Bouzat A. 🟨,
82', Alvarez F. ↓, Meza F. ↑,
89', Aquino C. ↓, Pellegrini M. ↑,
90', 0 - 1, Lagos A. ⚽,
90+4', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Argentinos Juniors won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Vélez will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Argentinos Juniors: Cardozo J. (Injury) Godoy E. (Injury) Prieto S. (Injury) Sanchez L. (Injury)

There will not play in Vélez: Santos M. (Injury)

Last 19 head-to-head matches Argentinos Juniors won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 9:16 (average 0.5:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Argentinos Juniors won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6:8 (average 0.7:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Vélez Sársfield - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 33.7%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Argentinos Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.10.24	Platense - Argentinos Juniors	2:1 ✺
20.10.24	Argentinos Juniors - Talleres de Córdoba	3:0 ✺
06.10.24	Boca Juniors - Argentinos Juniors	1:0 ✺
30.09.24	Argentinos Juniors - Atlético Tucumán	0:0 ✺
22.09.24	Independiente - Argentinos Juniors	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWLTT
- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.10.24	Vélez Sársfield - Belgrano	1:1 ✺
18.10.24	River Plate - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
05.10.24	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	1:0 ✺
01.10.24	Rosario Central - Vélez Sársfield	3:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
27.09.24	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
28.04.24	Argentinos Juniors - Vélez Sársfield	0:1 penalties
05.04.24	Vélez Sársfield - Argentinos Juniors	0:0
11.11.23	Argentinos Juniors - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.06.23	Vélez Sársfield - Argentinos Juniors	0:1
22.10.22	Argentinos Juniors - Vélez Sársfield	2:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
21.03.22	Argentinos Juniors - Vélez Sársfield	1:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
23.11.21	Vélez Sársfield - Argentinos Juniors	2:0

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