Match Info

ARGENTINA: Liga Profesional - Round 15

Date: 22 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda)

Referee: Tello F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Usa	FuboTV
World	Disney+, Fanatiz, TyC Sports Internacional


	Independiente		Argentinos Juniors

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.9	3.75	Watch
	2.3	2.8	3.6
	2.28	2.85	3.7	Watch
	2.31	2.85	3.95
	2.26	2.83	3.92	Watch
	2.27	2.89	3.77	Watch
	2.25	2.82	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (1.98)	2.85 ↓ (3.09)	3.76 ↓ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

Watch this match and Argentinian Liga Profesional with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: TyC Sports

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Current Win Probability

Independiente
41.6%

Draw
33.2%

Argentinos Juniors
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

30.6%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

29.8%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente's form might have worsened.

Argentinos Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Argentinos Juniors than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Independiente - Argentinos Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Argentinos Juniors will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Independiente: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rey R. (G) 4. Vera F. 26. Lomonaco K. 2. Laso J. 3. Sporle A. 23. Marcone I. (C) 5. Loyola F. 17. Gonzalez L. 44. Montiel S. 9. Avalos G. 24. Lopez S.	50. Rodriguez D. (G) 14. Coronel K. 16. Alvarez F. 2. Palacio T. 6. Vega R. 8. Rodriguez A. (C) 30. Mac Allister F. 21. Oroz N. 22. Lescano A. 26. Herrera J. 10. Veron G.
Substitutes
32. Canelo A. 29. Fedorco J. 16. Hidalgo S. 19. Luna A. 18. Maestro I. 11. Mancuello F. 21. Martinez D. 6. Pellegrino M. 15. Perez D. 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 25. Segovia D. (G) 27. Tarzia D.	19. Galvan J. 36. Gamarra A. 15. Heredia L. 35. Mangiaut A. 18. Meza F. 27. Molina T. 28. Perello M. 7. Rodriguez S. 9. Romero M. 23. Santamaria T. 29. Viveros E.
Coaches
Vaccari J.	Zermatten C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Vera F. ↓, Quinonez Ruiz J. R. ↑,
23', Vega R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 🟨,
59', Quinonez Ruiz J. R. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
59', Montiel S. ↓, Martinez D. ↑,
64', Oroz N. ↓, Viveros E. ↑,
64', Veron G. ↓, Romero M. ↑,
74', Lescano A. 🟨,
75', Vega R. ↓, Meza F. ↑,
75', Herrera J. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
78', Gonzalez L. ↓, Mancuello F. ↑,
79', Lopez S. ↓, Luna A. ↑,
81', Mac Allister F. ↓, Gamarra A. ↑,
82', Lomonaco K. 🟨,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 19 and 20).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Independiente won 1.

Independiente is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Argentinos Juniors is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Argentinos Juniors could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Independiente will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Independiente won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 19-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Independiente won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
14.09.24	Belgrano - Independiente	1:1 ✺
01.09.24	Independiente - River Plate	0:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
28.08.24	Godoy Cruz - Independiente	0:3 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
25.08.24	Racing - Independiente	0:0 ✺
17.08.24	Independiente - Rosario Central	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TTWTW
- Argentinos Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.09.24	Argentinos Juniors - Newells Old Boys	3:0 ✺
02.09.24	Gimnasia La Plata - Argentinos Juniors	1:0 ✺
24.08.24	Argentinos Juniors - Huracán Buenos Aires	0:0 ✺
19.08.24	Unión Santa Fe - Argentinos Juniors	3:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
14.08.24	Argentinos Juniors - Huracán Buenos Aires	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
02.03.24	Independiente - Argentinos Juniors	2:1
07.10.23	Argentinos Juniors - Independiente	0:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.05.23	Argentinos Juniors - Independiente	2:2
16.06.22	Argentinos Juniors - Independiente	2:1
18.07.21	Independiente - Argentinos Juniors	0:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
28.12.20	Argentinos Juniors - Independiente	0:2
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.10.19	Independiente - Argentinos Juniors	0:1

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