Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 15

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni (Gdynia)

Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV


	Arka Gdynia		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.5	2.1	Watch
	3.3	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.51	3.5	2.19
	4.27	3.82	1.78	Watch
	3.25	3.51	2.18	Watch
	4	3.55	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.62 ↑ (3.6)	3.55 ↑ (3.23)	2.02 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arka Gdynia
26.2%

Draw
26.8%

Lech Poznań
47%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.8%

27.7%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

27.2%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arka Gdynia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	38.5%	46.2%

Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Arka will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Lech will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Weglarz D. (G) 29. Marcjanik M. 23. Hermoso K. 94. Gojny D. (C) 2. Navarro M. 10. Nguiamba A. 35. Jakubczyk K. 11. Kocyla D. 31. Rusyn N. 37. Kerk S. 99. Espiau Hernandez E. D.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 20. Gumny R. 72. Skrzypczak M. (C) 16. Milic A. 15. Gurgul M. 99. Rodriguez P. 43. Kozubal A. 6. Ouma T. 56. Lisman K. 7. Agnero Y. 77. Palma L.
Substitutes
33. Abramowicz D. 18. Celestine J. 9. Gaprindashvili T. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 17. Predenkiewicz M. 8. Sidibe A. 7. Sobczak S. 21. Szysz P. 14. Vitalucci H. 4. Zator D.	14. Bengtsson L. 19. Fiabema B. 88. Ismaheel T. 24. Jagiello F. 54. Jakobczyk K. 27. Monka W. 4. Moutinho J. 2. Pereira J. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G) 23. Thordarson G.
Coaches
Szwarga D.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Rodriguez P. ⚽, Lisman K. (A),
26', Kerk S. 🟨,
29', Gumny R. 🟨,
30', Kocyla D. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
52', Ouma T. 🟨,
55', Ouma T. 🟨,
57', Lisman K. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Espiau Hernandez E. D. ⚽, Kerk S. (A),
71', Espiau Hernandez E. D. 🟨,
71', Kocyla D. ↓, Szysz P. ↑,
71', Rusyn N. ↓, Gaprindashvili T. ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Espiau Hernandez E. D. ⚽, Gaprindashvili T. (A),
75', Gumny R. ↓, Pereira J. ↑,
75', Rodriguez P. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
75', Palma L. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
78', 3 - 1, Espiau Hernandez E. D. ⚽, Jakubczyk K. (A),
79', Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↓, Sidibe A. ↑,
82', Agnero Y. ↓, Jakobczyk K. ↑,
87', Jakubczyk K. ↓, Sobczak S. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arka won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Arka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Lech has had a series of away games.

In this match, Lech is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Lech: Douglas A. (Inactive) Gholizadeh A. (Thigh Injury) Hakans D. (Ankle Injury) Murawski R. (Surgery) Walemark P. (Surgery)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Arka won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Arka won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.4:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Lech Poznań - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 47.52%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arka Gdynia
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.11.25	Górnik Zabrze - Arka Gdynia	5:1 ✺
Polish Cup
30.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Zabrze	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Piast Gliwice	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Arka Gdynia	4:0 ✺
04.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Cracovia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWLW
- Lech Poznań
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Rayo Vallecano - Lech Poznań	3:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.11.25	Lech Poznań - Motor Lublin	2:2 ✺
Polish Cup
30.10.25	Gryf Słupsk - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Lincoln Red Imps - Lech Poznań	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
07.12.23	Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań	0:1
Club Friendly
09.07.21	Lech Poznań - Arka Gdynia	0:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.12.19	Lech Poznań - Arka Gdynia	1:1
17.08.19	Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań	0:0
03.03.19	Lech Poznań - Arka Gdynia	1:0
21.09.18	Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań	1:0
11.02.18	Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań	0:0

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