Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 14

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Poznan (Poznań)

Referee: Krasny S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Lech Poznań		Motor Lublin

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.5	5	Watch
	1.49	4.55	5.3	Watch
	1.35	5.08	8.41	Watch
	1.58	4.35	4.75	Watch
	1.51	4.5	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.35)	4.6 ↓ (5.08)	5.77 ↓ (8.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
63.1%

Draw
20.5%

Motor Lublin
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.1%

18.6%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.3%

17.8%

10.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lech Poznań's form might have worsened.

Motor Lublin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Motor Lublin's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lech Poznań, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Motor Lublin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Lech Poznań - Motor Lublin Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lech Poznań will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 3. Douglas A. 16. Milic A. 15. Gurgul M. 88. Ismaheel T. 6. Ouma T. 24. Jagiello F. 77. Palma L. 9. Ishak M. (C) 99. Rodriguez P.	1. Brkic I. (G) 28. Stolarski P. 39. Bartos M. 18. Najemski A. 24. Luberecki F. 7. Rodrigues I. 6. Samper S. 68. Wolski B. (C) 26. Krol M. 9. Czubak K. 11. Fabio Ronaldo
Substitutes
7. Agnero Y. 31. Bakowski K. (G) 14. Bengtsson L. 19. Fiabema B. 20. Gumny R. 43. Kozubal A. 27. Monka W. 4. Moutinho J. 72. Skrzypczak M. 23. Thordarson G.	77. Dadashov R. 42. Ede B. 23. Haxha F. 10. Karasek K. 21. Labojko J. 3. Matthys H. 2. Meyer P. 47. Palacz K. 8. Scalet M. 33. Tratnik G. (G) 19. van Hoeven B.
Coaches
Frederiksen N.	Stolarski M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Pereira J. (Own goal),
20', 0 - 2, Fabio Ronaldo ⚽, Rodrigues I. (A),
25', 1 - 2, Palma L. ⚽, Ishak M. (A),
38', Milic A. 🟨,
43', Pereira J. 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 2, Pereira J. ⚽,
45+2', Fabio Ronaldo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ismaheel T. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
46', Fabio Ronaldo ↓, van Hoeven B. ↑,
67', Wolski B. ↓, Scalet M. ↑,
67', Jagiello F. ↓, Kozubal A. ↑,
67', Palma L. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
77', Czubak K. ↓, Dadashov R. ↑,
77', Samper S. ↓, Labojko J. ↑,
79', Rodriguez P. ↓, Fiabema B. ↑,
79', Pereira J. ↓, Gumny R. ↑,
89', Rodrigues I. ↓, Karasek K. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 and 15).

In recent matches, Lech has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Motor is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Motor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Lech has had a series of away games.

In this match, Lech is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Lech: Gholizadeh A. (Thigh Injury) Hakans D. (Ankle Injury) Murawski R. (Inactive) Walemark P. (Surgery)

There will not play in Motor: Ndiaye M. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lech won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Lech won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Cup
30.10.25	Gryf Słupsk - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Lincoln Red Imps - Lech Poznań	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.10.25	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	2:2 ✺
05.10.25	GKS Katowice - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WTLTW
- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
24.10.25	Motor Lublin - Widzew Łódź	3:0 ✺
17.10.25	Motor Lublin - GKS Katowice	2:5 ✺
05.10.25	Raków Częstochowa - Motor Lublin	2:0 ✺
29.09.25	Motor Lublin - Radomiak Radom	2:2 ✺
Polish Cup
25.09.25	Arka Gdynia - Motor Lublin	1:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
13.04.25	Motor Lublin - Lech Poznań	1:2
05.10.24	Lech Poznań - Motor Lublin	1:2

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