Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 1

Date: 20 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Motor Lublin Arena (Lublin)

Referee: Frankowski B. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2


	Motor Lublin		Arka Gdynia

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.3	2.7	Watch
	2.5	3.4	2.55
	2.45	3.4	2.68	Watch
	2.6	3.59	2.66
	2.62	3.18	2.72	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.62
	2.45	3.52	2.69	Watch
	1.99	3.45	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (1.92)	3.39 ↑ (3.3)	2.76 ↓ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motor Lublin
38.2%

Draw
27.7%

Arka Gdynia
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

28.2%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

27.7%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motor Lublin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Motor Lublin's form might have worsened.

Arka Gdynia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arka Gdynia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Motor Lublin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arka Gdynia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	37.5%	12.5%

Motor Lublin - Arka Gdynia Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Motor will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Arka will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Motor: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Motor (1.87) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Motor (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Tratnik G. (G) 17. Wojcik F. 18. Najemski A. 3. Matthys H. 47. Palacz K. 68. Wolski B. (C) 21. Labojko J. 8. Scalet M. 26. Krol M. 22. Simon C. 30. Ndiaye M.	77. Weglarz D. (G) 4. Zator D. 29. Marcjanik M. (C) 18. Celestine J. 33. Abramowicz D. 37. Kerk S. 10. Nguiamba A. 8. Sidibe A. 9. Gaprindashvili T. 14. Vitalucci H. 11. Kocyla D.
Substitutes
39. Bartos M. 1. Brkic I. (G) 9. Dadashov R. 42. Ede B. 23. Haxha F. 16. Lewandowski F. 24. Luberecki F. 2. Meyer P. K. 7. Rodrigues I. 6. Samper S. 28. Stolarski P. 19. Van Hoeven B.	1. Grobelny J. (G) 23. Hermoso K. 35. Jakubczyk K. 2. Navarro M. 27. Oliveira J. . Percan 24. Perea L. 17. Predenkiewicz M. 7. Sobczak S. 32. Stolc P.
Coaches
Stolarski M.	Szwarga D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Simon C. ↓, Dadashov R. ↑,
46', Zator D. ↓, Navarro M. ↑,
50', 1 - 0, Ndiaye M. ⚽, Wolski B. (A),
52', Celestine J. 🟨,
56', Sidibe A. 🟨,
63', Vitalucci H. ↓, Sobczak S. ↑,
63', Nguiamba A. ↓, Jakubczyk K. ↑,
63', Kocyla D. ↓, Oliveira J. ↑,
66', Labojko J. ↓, Samper S. ↑,
66', Krol M. ↓, Van Hoeven B. ↑,
68', Jakubczyk K. 🟨,
70', Kerk S. ↓, Predenkiewicz M. ↑,
71', Dadashov R. 🟨,
75', Scalet M. ↓, Rodrigues I. ↑,
82', Gaprindashvili T. 🟨,
90+2', Palacz K. 🟨,
90+4', Ndiaye M. ↓, Haxha F. ↑,

Preview

Motor is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Arka has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Motor won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Motor won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Motor Lublin
Club Friendly
11.07.25	Motor Lublin - Wisła Płock	2:2 ✺
05.07.25	Motor Lublin - Lechia Gdańsk	5:3 ✺
28.06.25	Motor Lublin - FC Dinamo Bucureşti	3:3 ✺
21.06.25	Motor Lublin - Znicz Pruszków	3:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
24.05.25	Radomiak Radom - Motor Lublin	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWTWW
- Arka Gdynia
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Hapoel Jerusalem	1:2 ✺
05.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Chojniczanka Chojnice	2:0 ✺
02.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
28.06.25	Arka Gdynia - Miedź Legnica	5:0 ✺
21.06.25	GKS Tychy - Arka Gdynia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
02.06.24	Arka Gdynia - Motor Lublin	1:2
12.04.24	Motor Lublin - Arka Gdynia	2:2
29.09.23	Arka Gdynia - Motor Lublin	2:0

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