Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 17

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni (Gdynia)

Referee: Arys K. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV


	Arka Gdynia		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.3	1.8	Watch
	4.35	3.3	1.82	Watch
	4.92	3.37	1.85
	3.86	3.42	1.97	Watch
	4.69	3.25	1.81	Watch
	4.75	3.33	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.48 ↑ (2.81)	3.33 ↑ (3.09)	1.84 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arka Gdynia
20.9%

Draw
28.2%

Raków Częstochowa
50.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

28.9%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

28.7%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arka Gdynia's form might have worsened.

Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Raków Częstochowa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arka Gdynia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Raków Częstochowa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	12.5%	68.7%

Arka Gdynia - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Arka will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Raków will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Raków: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Weglarz D. (G) 4. Zator D. 29. Marcjanik M. 94. Gojny D. (C) 2. Navarro M. 8. Sidibe A. 35. Jakubczyk K. 9. Gaprindashvili T. 31. Rusyn N. 99. Espiau Hernandez E. D. 37. Kerk S.	48. Zych O. (G) 66. Konstantopoulos A. 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. (C) 19. Ameyaw M. 88. Barath P. 6. Repka O. 11. Adriano 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 18. Brunes J. 9. Makuch P.
Substitutes
33. Abramowicz D. 18. Celestine J. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 23. Hermoso K. 27. Oliveira J. 22. Percan 6. Perea L. 17. Predenkiewicz M. 21. Szysz P. 14. Vitalucci H.	5. Bulat M. 10. Lopez I. 39. Madrzyk J. (G) 44. Mircetic B. 8. Pienko T. 99. Rondic I. 97. Seck I. 23. Struski K. 1. Trelowski K. (G)
Coaches
Szwarga D.	Papszun M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
10', 0 - 1, Diaby-Fadiga L. ⚽,
26', Barath P. 🟨,
33', Konstantopoulos A. 🟨,
40', Zator D. 🟥,
43', Navarro M. 🟨,
45', 0 - 2, Ameyaw M. ⚽,
45+3', 0 - 3, Brunes J. ⚽, Ameyaw M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Adriano ↓, Pienko T. ↑,
46', Rusyn N. ↓, Hermoso K. ↑,
46', Gaprindashvili T. ↓, Predenkiewicz M. ↑,
57', 0 - 4, Brunes J. ⚽, Makuch P. (A),
58', Diaby-Fadiga L. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
58', Makuch P. ↓, Mircetic B. ↑,
64', Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↓, Szysz P. ↑,
64', Kerk S. ↓, Percan ↑,
70', Ameyaw M. ↓, Rondic I. ↑,
71', 1 - 4, Navarro M. ⚽,
82', Repka O. 🟨,
83', Sidibe A. ↓, Perea L. ↑,
83', Repka O. ↓, Bulat M. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 8).

Arka has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Raków is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Arka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Raków is the team to beat.

There will not play in Arka: Nguiamba A. (Red Card) Oliveira J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Raków: Arsenic Z. (Leg Injury) Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Struski K. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Raków: Mosor A. (Inactive) Silva J. C. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arka won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 1.2:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Arka won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Raków Częstochowa - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 39.33%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arka Gdynia
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.11.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Arka Gdynia	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań	3:1 ✺
02.11.25	Górnik Zabrze - Arka Gdynia	5:1 ✺
Polish Cup
30.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Zabrze	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Piast Gliwice	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWLLW
- Raków Częstochowa
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Raków Częstochowa - Rapid Wien	4:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.11.25	Raków Częstochowa - Piast Gliwice	1:3 ✺
09.11.25	Korona Kielce - Raków Częstochowa	1:4 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Sparta Prague - Raków Częstochowa	0:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.11.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
01.03.22	Arka Gdynia - Raków Częstochowa	0:2
02.05.21	Raków Częstochowa - Arka Gdynia	2:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.06.20	Raków Częstochowa - Arka Gdynia	3:2
22.02.20	Arka Gdynia - Raków Częstochowa	3:2
14.09.19	Raków Częstochowa - Arka Gdynia	2:0

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