Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 14

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok)

Referee: Raczkowski P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Poland	CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.73	3.64	2.40	Watch
	2.21	3.3	3.14	Watch
	2.31	3.35	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.73)	3.39 ↓ (3.64)	2.94 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
40.3%

Draw
27.7%

Raków Częstochowa
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

26%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

26.4%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jagiellonia Białystok's performance.

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Raków Częstochowa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jagiellonia Białystok that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Raków Częstochowa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.2%	15.8%	21.1%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 12 - 63.2%). Raków will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 41.5% – 84.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 2 - 50%). Raków (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Jagiellonia (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 3 - 60%). Raków (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Piekutowski M. (G) 7. Pozo A. 13. Vital B. 70. Pelmard A. 27. Wdowik B. 21. Lozano S. 6. Romanczuk T. 80. Pietuszewski O. 11. Imaz J. 72. Jozwiak K. 10. Pululu A.	48. Zych O. (G) 66. Konstantopoulos A. 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. 19. Ameyaw M. 88. Barath P. 6. Repka O. 20. Silva J. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 18. Brunes J. 8. Pienko T.
Substitutes
19. Cantero A. 66. Damasiewicz A. (G) 8. Drachal D. 31. Flach L. 25. Jackson A. 4. Kobayashi Y. 5. Polak C. 18. Prip L. 9. Rallis D. 3. Stojinovic D. 17. Sylla Y. 15. Wojtuszek N.	11. Adriano 5. Bulat M. 9. Makuch P. 44. Mircetic B. 99. Rondic I. 97. Seck I. 23. Struski K. 1. Trelowski K. (G)
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Papszun M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Repka O. ⚽, Ameyaw M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 0 - 2, Repka O. ⚽,
55', Silva J. ↓, Makuch P. ↑,
73', Barath P. 🟨,
74', Pelmard A. ↓, Stojinovic D. ↑,
74', Lozano S. ↓, Flach L. ↑,
80', 1 - 2, Pululu A. ⚽, Wdowik B. (A),
81', Jozwiak K. 🟨,
83', Pozo A. 🟨,
83', Makuch P. 🟨,
84', Pululu A. 🟨,
86', Pienko T. ↓, Bulat M. ↑,
86', Brunes J. ↓, Adriano ↑,
88', Pozo A. ↓, Wojtuszek N. ↑,
90+5', Jozwiak K. ↓, Prip L. ↑,
90+7', Repka O. ↓, Struski K. ↑,
90+7', Diaby-Fadiga L. ↓, Rondic I. ↑,
90+17', Flach L. 🟨,
90+21', Vital B. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 2.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Jagiellonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Jagiellonia: Abramowicz S. (Inactive)

There will not play in Raków: Arsenic Z. (Leg Injury) Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Raków: Mosor A. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 1.4:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Jagiellonia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.7:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Cup
30.10.25	Miedź Legnica - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Górnik Zabrze - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Strasbourg - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
18.10.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Arka Gdynia	4:0 ✺
05.10.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WLTWW
- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Cup
29.10.25	Raków Częstochowa - Cracovia	3:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Raków Częstochowa - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Sigma Olomouc - Raków Częstochowa	1:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
18.10.25	Cracovia - Raków Częstochowa	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Raków Częstochowa - Motor Lublin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
10.05.25	Raków Częstochowa - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2
10.11.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Raków Częstochowa	2:2
10.12.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Raków Częstochowa	4:2
22.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:0
24.02.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Raków Częstochowa	1:2
14.08.22	Raków Częstochowa - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:2
18.12.21	Raków Częstochowa - Jagiellonia Białystok	5:0

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