Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 16

Date: 21 November 2025, Friday

Location: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza)

Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 1
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Termalica Nieciecza		Arka Gdynia

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.5	Watch
	2.02	3.4	3.4
	2.11	3.45	3.5
	2.03	3.57	3.52	Watch
	2.09	3.34	3.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (2.03)	3.43 ↓ (3.57)	3.46 ↓ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Termalica Nieciecza
45.8%

Draw
27.2%

Arka Gdynia
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

26.5%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

26%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Arka Gdynia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.6%	13%	17.4%

Termalica Nieciecza - Arka Gdynia Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Termalica will win (votes: 16 - 69.6%). Arka will win (votes: 4 - 17.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Termalica: 50.8% – 88.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Arka (2.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Termalica Nieciecza will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Termalica (votes: 3 - 60%). Arka (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chovan A. (G) 29. Isik G. 5. Masoero L. 3. Kasperkiewicz A. 21. Hilbrycht D. 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 8. Kurzawa R. 6. Wolski M. 13. Kubica K. 25. Zapolnik K. (C) 9. Jimenez J.	77. Weglarz D. (G) 29. Marcjanik M. 23. Hermoso K. 94. Gojny D. (C) 2. Navarro M. 10. Nguiamba A. 35. Jakubczyk K. 11. Kocyla D. 21. Szysz P. 37. Kerk S. 99. Espiau Hernandez E. D.
Substitutes
17. Biniek D. 35. Deisadze D. 7. Fassbender M. 23. Guerrero S. 26. Jakubik W. 16. Kozik M. 99. Mleczko M. (G) 22. Mrosek N. 77. Putivtsev A. 86. Strzalek I.	33. Abramowicz D. 18. Celestine J. 9. Gaprindashvili T. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 22. Percan 6. Perea L. 17. Predenkiewicz M. 31. Rusyn N. 14. Vitalucci H. 4. Zator D.
Coaches
Brosz M.	Szwarga D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Kurzawa R. ⚽, Hilbrycht D. (A),
40', Hermoso K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Zapolnik K. 🟨,
57', Kurzawa R. 🟨,
60', Kocyla D. ↓, Rusyn N. ↑,
60', Szysz P. ↓, Gaprindashvili T. ↑,
65', Nguiamba A. 🟥,
69', Jimenez J. ↓, Strzalek I. ↑,
69', Kurzawa R. ↓, Fassbender M. ↑,
74', Jakubczyk K. ↓, Perea L. ↑,
74', Kerk S. ↓, Percan ↑,
75', Perea L. 🟨,
77', Zapolnik K. ↓, Guerrero S. ↑,
78', Gojny D. 🟨,
82', Gojny D. ↓, Abramowicz D. ↑,
84', Rusyn N. 🟨,
88', 2 - 0, Kubica K. ⚽, Hilbrycht D. (A),
90', Kubica K. 🟨,
90+1', Wolski M. ↓, Putivtsev A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 3.

Termalica is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arka has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Termalica might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Arka: Oliveira J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Arka: Percan (Inactive)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 32:23. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Termalica won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:9. (average 1.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Termalica Nieciecza
Polish Ekstraklasa
09.11.25	Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2 ✺
31.10.25	Termalica Nieciecza - GKS Katowice	0:3 ✺
24.10.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Zagłębie Lubin	1:1 ✺
20.10.25	Wisła Płock - Termalica Nieciecza	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Widzew Łódź	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WLTLL
- Arka Gdynia
Polish Ekstraklasa
09.11.25	Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań	3:1 ✺
02.11.25	Górnik Zabrze - Arka Gdynia	5:1 ✺
Polish Cup
30.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Zabrze	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Piast Gliwice	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Arka Gdynia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
04.05.25	Arka Gdynia - Termalica Nieciecza	2:1
26.10.24	Termalica Nieciecza - Arka Gdynia	2:1
11.12.23	Termalica Nieciecza - Arka Gdynia	2:1
21.07.23	Arka Gdynia - Termalica Nieciecza	2:2
03.06.23	Termalica Nieciecza - Arka Gdynia	2:1
06.11.22	Arka Gdynia - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2
21.04.21	Arka Gdynia - Termalica Nieciecza	1:1

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